WiMax still immature - Gartner

A recent study conducted by Gartner on WiMax and its viability suggests that there is no urgent need for service providers to deploy the technology just yet. The research shows it will take some time for WiMax to mature and for the associated ecosystem to reach critical mass.

There has been much market speculation on the capabilities of WiMax and its potential role in the telecommunications market. Gartner's report, entitled Dataquest Insight: Is mobile WiMax a disruptive threat or overblown hype?, analyses the impact of the technology on existing service providers and addresses major concerns, implications and possible opportunities.

"Mobile WiMax must be seen as what it is: a broadband access technology. The key challenge to this technology is the ongoing evolution of cellular technology. Capability differences between these two technologies will narrow, blunting the disruptive impact of mobile WiMax," the report claims.

It will take some time for WiMax to mature and for the associated ecosystem to reach critical mass.

Gartner

Of concern is that network simulation and testing of WiMax have largely been done under "hygienic conditions", which means there are still lingering doubts as to the actual performance of the technology in real-life deployments loaded with actual voice and data traffic. There has been little discussion of inter-cell interference and the impact on data throughput efficiency.

"Another key issue is the availability of consumer devices and the time frame," the report states. "For the technology to gain market traction, it is imperative that there is a wide range of devices and product models available at reasonable retail prices.

"This may take time to become a reality, as there will be teething problems with mobile WiMax deployments."

The Gartner report goes on to point out that South Korea has shown that, despite all the market hype, devices and services can be quite expensive.

"In addition, not all device vendors are expected to jump onto the bandwagon in the near term," it elaborates.

The study also notes a lack of clarity about the capabilities of end-user devices in terms of radio transmitting power. This will have an impact on the data rates achievable on the uplink connection. The decision to incorporate a strong radio transmitter will be an economic one.

In short, the technology still requires some time to reach operational maturity. The full ecosystem (encompassing the technology platform, complementary devices and value-added applications among others) will also take time to develop.

Gartner's recommendations are that service providers planning to deploy WiMax will have a better chance of success if they focus on how they can help solve end-user problems or challenges.

In other words, they need to focus more on the contextual situation in which the technology is used. Service providers (both existing players and new entrants) should investigate prospects beyond the consumer and enterprise markets.

"[Service providers] may consider the possibility of being network infrastructure suppliers, for example, offering backhaul or local leased circuits to other carriers or service providers. They should plan for seamless network access to services and applications, and make the access technology platform transparent to the end-user. Mobile WiMax can be a part of this access network architecture," the report adds.

In wrapping up its findings, Gartner says it does not expect the technology to threaten existing service providers, as it takes more than technology to disrupt the current market structure.

"In the final analysis, it all boils down to the delivery of value to end-users and meeting market needs. Service providers hoping to capitalise on mobile WiMax need to differentiate themselves clearly and strategise according to the market scenario. This will be key for success."

* Report courtesy of Gartner Africa. Information sourced from: Gartner's Dataquest insight: Is Mobile WiMax a Disruptive Threat or Overblown Hype? January 2007.