PC manufacturers ramped up shipments to the US in the first quarter in anticipation of the first round of the Trump administration’s tariff announcements.
This is according to the latest data from Canalys, now part of Omdia, which notes the total shipments of desktops, notebooks and workstations grew 9.4% to 62.7 million units in Q1 2025.
It adds that notebook (including mobile workstations) shipments hit 49.4 million units, up 10% compared to a year ago.
Shipments of desktops (including desktop workstations) rose 8% to 13.3 million units, says Canalys, adding that Q1 volumes were boosted by original equipment manufacturers (OEMs) that increased shipments to the US ahead of the Trump administration’s new tariffs.
On 2 April, US president Donald Trump proclaimed “Liberation Day” and announced a comprehensive tariff strategy aimed at addressing trade imbalances.
This plan introduced a universal 10% tariff on imports from most countries, effective 5 April, with certain nations facing higher, country-specific rates starting 9 April.
China, for instance, was subjected to a cumulative 54% tariff on its exports to the US. The Trump administration justified these measures by citing persistent trade deficits and alleged unfair practices by trading partners.
Amid escalating fears of a prolonged trade war, China reportedly vowed to “fight till the end”.
This morning, News24 reported that the White House said new US tariffs on China will hit 104% today.
Accelerated deliveries
Canalys points out that as the next round of higher tariffs on more countries goes into effect, direct and indirect impacts threaten global PC market recovery and Windows 10 end of support-induced momentum for the remainder of the year.
“PC shipments experienced a surge in Q1 2025, driven by vendors accelerating deliveries to the US in anticipation of initial tariff announcements,” says Ishan Dutt, principal analyst at Canalys.
According to the data, Lenovo and HP grew shipments to the US in Q1 by around 20% and 13%, respectively.
“This pre-emptive strategy allowed manufacturers and the channel to stock up ahead of potential cost increases, boosting sell-in shipments despite otherwise stable end-user demand,” adds Dutt.
“Although similar steps are being taken regarding the broader tariffs set to kick in on 9 April, subsequent quarters this year are likely to see a slowdown as inventory levels normalise and customers face higher prices.”
Canalys explains that the impact of tariffs on consumer demand is expected to be greater, as purchasing a more expensive PC will need to be prioritised against other spending categories also facing price increases.
Businesses, especially small companies, will also face some pressure that could slow down momentum for the critical transition away from Windows 10 ahead of the October 2025 end-of-support date, it adds.
“A Canalys March poll of channel partners that are familiar with SMB PC refresh plans revealed that 14% say their customers are not aware of Windows 10 end-of-support and a further 21% say their customers are aware but have no plans to upgrade,” says Dutt.
“For customers in these situations, the delay in planning means they are likely to face a higher cost environment when the time comes to refresh their PC fleets.”
From a production perspective, Canalys notes that major OEMs already began supply chain diversification during Trump’s first term and are expected to continue moving away from China towards Vietnam, Thailand and India, despite these countries also facing the imposition of tariffs.
By the end of 2025, most major PC vendors are expected to have completed the shift of US-bound shipments out of China, aiming to enhance supply chain resilience and mitigate the impact of tariffs, it says.
For example, in its latest earnings call, HP CEO Enrique Lores stated that 90% of the company’s products sold in the US would be made outside of China by the end of this year.
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“Although these major manufacturing countries have been targeted with tariffs, their rates remain relatively competitive compared to China’s,” says Ben Yeh, senior analyst at Canalys.
“Moreover, these countries have shown a willingness to negotiate, raising the possibility that the tariffs may eventually be reduced or waived, while China has responded swiftly with a new round of reciprocal tariffs. As a result, production relocation plans are still ongoing and are unlikely to change significantly before further implementation details are announced.”
In Q1 2025, Lenovo maintained its lead in the global PC market, shipping 15.2 million notebooks and desktops, and achieving strong growth of 11%, says Canalys.
Second-placed HP grew its shipments 6% annually, hitting 12.8 million units. Following several quarters of year-on-year declines, Dell achieved 3% growth, shipping 9.5 million units in Q1.
Apple secured fourth place with strong shipment growth of 22%, shipping 6.5 million units and capturing 10.4% market share. Asus rounded out the top five rankings with 9% growth and 4.0 million units shipped.
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