Next-generation mobile technology could relegate WiMax to a niche position in Africa, as a wireless Internet solution.
So says BMI-TechKnowledge's latest report, which seeks to identify the true impact of WiMax on a continent that has a higher penetration of mobile phones, with Internet access, than fixed lines.
"WiMax will face stiff competition from mobile networks, although it will still have a greater impact on those developing countries in which it is given a reasonable head-start over mobile broadband networks," says BMI-T research director Brian Neilson. "In Africa, there are already 14 commercial HSPA networks in nine countries."
Neilson explains that for most ordinary consumers in SA, HSPA mobile solutions have all the qualities of a fixed-line connection with the advantage of being mobile. He points to Vodacom's HSPA offering of 3.6Mbps as being a fast service that has lured consumers away from fixed lines, due to the aggressive pricing in this country.
BMT-T adds that mobile carriers across Africa will take full advantage of their market position to push for long-term evolution (LTE) technology as a logical follow-on to HSPA for consumers, although some will also deploy their own WiMax networks in niches, for example, to their business customers.
"Yet there are still niche markets out there for CDMA and WiMax, and companies can still sell them as an alternative to DSL and eliminate the need for copper wires," says Neilson. "Neotel's strategy is a case in point."
Neotel senior OSP manager Imran Abbas says Neotel will not lay any copper for its fixed-line wireless services. "We found that copper got too expensive because of theft and it would be cheaper to lay fibre optics instead."
Neilson says CDMA and WiMax will replace copper and offer affordable fixed wireless solutions. Yet HSPA technology and, ultimately, LTE will be able to double up on the utility of fixed wireless because of their high penetration in Africa and their mobility.
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