The time-bomb has been ticking for some time, since December 1998 to be exact, and is set to explode on 1 July 2011 or - depending on who people listen to - 28 January 2012.
Realistically, there are only a few hundred days left until the world runs out of IP (Internet Protocol) addresses. According to Martin Levy, a director at Hurricane Electric (a US-based global ISP), the actual date could come even earlier if the impending depletion causes demand to accelerate in a 'land grab' for the last IP addresses. The consequences could be catastrophic.
IP is one of the most important protocols for networks, including the Internet. It is responsible for identifying each machine on the network by a unique address (the IP address) and routing data packets from their source to destination using this address.
The current IP address system in use is version four (or IPv4). First described in 1981, it is today the most widely used protocol allowing corporate networks to function and users to connect to the Internet and surf the Web.
Not big enough
Because an IPv4 address is made up of 32 binary digits (bits) there are only a limited number of possible addresses, 4.295 billion (two raised to the power of 32). While this number might have looked big enough in 1981, the unused pool is now extremely small and depleting more rapidly than ever, thanks to new-generation cloud-based services and applications coming on stream, demanding more peering points to allow users to connect with the cloud.
Without any new IP addresses to assign, the networked world will become frozen in time. With no new devices being added to any network or to the Internet, all activity will be pegged at today's levels. It would be the realisation of a doomsday scenario for businesses, governments and the military.
IP address depletion is erroneously seen as an unimportant issue inside the enterprise.
Andy Robb is chief technology officer at Duxbury Networking.
This scenario was predicted 22 years ago when the replacement IPv6 system was first mooted. Probably because of its perceived awkwardness, IPv6 failed to gain traction in a marketplace in which complacency had taken root. IPv6 consist of 128 bits, allowing an almost infinitesimal number of addresses - the equivalent to the value of two raised to the power of 128; a number with 40 zeros.
Today, the cumbersome nature of IPv6's lengthy IP addresses is taken care of by modern compression techniques, and IPv6 has been enhanced to bring improvements including auto-configuration on routers and improved security.
The resistance to IPv6 was probably because acceptance meant companies had to either support dual addressing schemes or take on the much more onerous task of introducing a new, dedicated infrastructure to peer to ISPs and other application service providers and hosting environments.
Standing still
The decision-making inertia surrounding IPv6 was underlined by research, which showed a less than 1% penetration of IPv6 devices in the global marketplace as recently as December 2008.
Unfortunately, complacency still exists, because IP address depletion is erroneously seen as an unimportant issue inside the enterprise, and because companies have introduced mechanisms allowing many staff members to talk to the outside world via one IP address, rather than the many hundreds that should have been deployed.
Now, with the proliferation of cloud computing, these mechanisms are being exposed as nothing more than corporate delaying tactics, and the critical role of the IP address as the primary mechanism for securely communicating with anybody external to the organisation has been highlighted.
Is the IPv4 doomsday scenario confined to the US or Europe? What about developing countries? In Africa, for example, 500 million potential users still need to be linked to the Internet. Even greater numbers require Internet links in India and China. They are already making huge demands on the IP address pool and will contribute to the IP address doomsday scenario unless IPv6 gains global acceptance soon.
The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development has called on all governments and businesses to work together more effectively and urgently to “secure the future of the Internet economy” by implementing IPv6.
Mat Ford, the technology programme director of the Internet Society (ISOC), echoes this urgency, stressing that no large organisation should be at ease if it hasn't moved toward IPv6 already.
The ISOC is a non-profit group overseeing the Internet Engineering Task Force, the organisation that handles the development of protocols and other Internet technologies - including IPv6.
In his YouTube presentation, he urges IT managers to “train staff, figure out which servers and routers need development work and test the solutions you create”.
He says the ISOC is cheerleading for the immediate deployment of IPv6, warning: “If you leave it to the last minute, costs will be very expensive.”
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