The IT industry will see a return to innovation and hard work, said Mike Katz, COO and MD, PricewaterhouseCoopers Global Technology Centre. He was speaking in Chicago during the company`s annual Technology Forecast, which evaluates the future of enterprise software. The Technology Forecast has been published since 1988.
He said that although many companies felt the pain of the dot-com implosion, the exuberance that marked the past few years had left behind some positive aspects, which will help carve out the future of enterprise software.
"The addition of inter-enterprise capabilities has been the major factor influencing the development of corporate applications during the past few years. The future will see increasing sophistication of these capabilities as vendors release their next generation of e-business-enabled applications."
Katz added that although the future of hardware is fairly easy to predict, the software industry is nowhere near as predictable.
"For instance, semiconductors and computer hardware move in incremental steps towards well-defined, agreed-upon goals - growing denser, smaller and faster. In contrast, the software world is characterised by a low degree of certainty about the speed and direction of progress. However, there are certain identifiable trends that lend a sense of direction."
The Technology Forecast highlights three software architectures - application integration, componentisation and Web services.
Application integration will be a great technical challenge, according to the report. "Many companies now are, or soon will be, in the midst of a transition from a software architecture based on the use of EAI [enterprise application integration] middleware connecting packaged application suites to one in which applications are divided into smaller components that are much easier to integrate," said Katz.
"I see EAI as a stepping stone. My advice is to start thinking about how to help your client from EAI to component to Web services. EAI is not going to be forever. I see a five-year window during which EAI will be essential. Then you will have to move on."
The report adds that the realisation of the Web services vision will be unlikely during the three-year forecast period, particularly because the concept assumes that companies will be willing to do business with new and unfamiliar business partners. Instead, Web services are more likely to be used during the forecast period for integration between trusted business partners and for integrating applications within the enterprise.
The Technology Forecast identifies five key trends that will influence the future of software. First is the impact of applications using peer-to-peer architectures rather than client/server architecture, which has been in widespread use for the last decade. Then there is the rise of open source software as an alternative to commercially licensed products. The third trend is the potential for intelligent software agents to act without constant human supervision. The forecast also highlights the new approach to software development that is based on Model-Driven Architecture being developed by the Object Management Group.
Lastly, it sees a reversal of the trend toward the use of the Web browser as the standard client for client/server applications.
Katz concluded by noting that the industry is no longer a place for get-rich-quick schemes. "However, opportunities are plentiful for innovative ideas and good business plans."
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