The end of the Web as we know it?

Internet appliances are set to take the world by storm, issuing a new era of Web access and application. 1999 will herald the dawn of the new age, in which Internet access not only becomes more mobile, but also far more user-friendly to technophobes. What will be the impact on our daily lives? And how will it affect the fledgling e-commerce market?

"...we begin to glimpse a vision of a futuristic world that will actually arrive, and far sooner than we think!"

According to International Data Corporation (IDC), the worldwide market for alternative (read "non-PC") Internet access devices will grow by leaps and bounds this year. IDC uses the term "Information Appliance" to describe a major, emerging new category of digital consumer electronics that provide low-cost, easy-to-use, consumer-focused access to the features and benefits of the Internet.

Despite aggressive developments in a number of interesting areas (such as microwave ATMs and refrigerator Web browsers), IDC believes the volume information appliance market will be focused on a specific number of discrete solution types. These include television-centric solutions (NetTVs), gaming console-based solutions (Internet gaming devices), portable handheld products (Internet smart handheld devices), standalone devices that run a suite of Internet-based applications (consumer NC clients), and a small "others" category that encompasses a variety of other solutions, including dedicated function devices, personal word processors, and more.

For much of early 1998, the information appliance market was poised at the edge of mass-market acceptance. But since the end of 1998, information appliances have definitely taken this step. Much of the momentum has moved toward the NetTV, gaming device and smart handheld space. The global market for all types of information appliances will grow from 3.0 million units in 1997 to nearly 5.9 million in 1998. By 2002 this will reach 55 million units worth $15 billion and an installed base of over 150 million units. Interestingly, this by no means spells the death of the PC (for which IDC still has a solid growth forecast), but it does mean the death of the PC-centric era for accessing the Internet.

Firstly, it opens up the market to many more people, further popularizing the Internet as a mass medium - with obvious social implications. Secondly, it makes it far easier to use the Internet anywhere, anytime. And this is just what most people will do - the average person will own many access devices. Taken to extreme - wearable devices built into our clothing and active walls that double as TV screens, for example - we begin to glimpse a vision of a futuristic world that will actually arrive, and far sooner than we think!

Information and communication will ultimately become so ubiquitous that we will take it for granted, just as we do telephones today. Which reminds me: the network dominant access method will be wireless, not cable-bound (along the lines of the cellular network today). And not all access devices need be owned. Public information terminals of all descriptions will become ubiquitous too.

Along with this growth comes a whole new pull-through industry. Web content will have to be provided that is friendly to all types of form factors - including smaller, lower resolution displays. Not that today's low-res smart handheld devices will remain low-res. But as fast as today's PDAs and cellphones become more sophisticated in terms of display technology, newer devices will come out, such as wristwatches, which will continue to demand low-res content.

The new devices also provide yet another channel for merchants of all descriptions to punt their products. This in turn raises the opportunity for advertising, and incredibly powerful new business models based on customer profiling, database marketing and "push technology".

Let's open up our imagination to a multi-functional device that combines the following:

• Cellphone.
• Internet access via the cellphone network (banking, booking tickets, etc).
• Doubles as a TV remote control when using your Web TV (via an infrared LED) and for up/down-loading data to/from your PC (or home-based LAN).
• Ditto for accessing updated information from public information terminals at the airport - using the infrared hookup to avoid having to log into the Internet to simply upload or download key information related to your travel bookings, flight times, etc.

This concept allows the user to switch freely and painlessly from online to offline sessions and back again, depending on the application. Local servers (eg your WebTV set-top box) could also be used as longer-term or bulkier information/data storage devices.

The possibilities are endless, and no doubt so too will be the innovation from vendors in the brave new world - will this be the end of the Web as we know it?