In June this year, communications minister Dina Pule announced at the ICT Indaba the medium-term target of 80% Internet connectivity across Africa by 2020, a bold statement that holds a lot of promise for SA and the continent if we can get it right.
Per the agreement the Department of Communications signed with the private sector late in 2011, government plans to 'achieve 100% universal broadband Internet penetration by 2020'. The reality, as Mike van den Bergh, CEO of Gateway Communications, notes, is that, at the end of 2011, SA only had approximately 8.5 million Internet users - approximately 17% penetration.
This has left many asking the question: is this pie-in-the-sky thinking, or a real possibility? What is the current state of the telecoms industry in SA? Are figures of 80% and 100% feasible by 2020? And what would need to happen to make it a reality by then?
Van den Bergh is confident that this kind of penetration is achievable in many African countries, but will require 'a gargantuan effort by all to achieve it'. Sean Nourse, Internet Solutions, and Greg Wilson, MD of Reflex Solutions, agree that 80% connectivity in SA by 2020 is possible, but it has its challenges, chief among them cost and red tape.
From consumers to producers
Demand for and consumption of data in SA and on the continent is increasing, but, according to Nourse, 'most data consumption is done via international centres'. He suggests SA needs to try to become a provider of content and start driving GDP by the amount of content it exports via the networks it is currently building.
"Until we start connecting every single South African and giving them access to the Internet in order to be entrepreneurial and innovative and start driving the content, we will always restrict this continent to just being an importer of data.
"South Africa hasn't been stagnant over the last few years. We've seen massive developments, and ICASA and government need to be recognised for allowing them to happen, [but] the question is always about timing. Has it happened soon enough? Four years ago, the biggest cost component of communication was undersea cable systems, connecting South Africa to the rest of the world. With the arrival of a lot of undersea cables, the next big question is how to tap that capacity from the shores of our continent to the major areas that need it."
It doesn't help having 80% coverage and only 20% of your constituents can use that coverage.
Fibre connections have been deployed to some areas to create municipal connections, but according to Reflex Solutions' Wilson, the current infrastructure to deliver that data to the end-user is disjointed.
"The infrastructure we have for switching and peering is the Johannesburg Internet Exchange (JINX) and the Cape Town Internet Exchange (CINX). Those are supposedly the official peering points for ISPs [in SA]. But the challenge with using JINX and CINX is that not all ISPs will peer with other ISPs, so there needs to be some regulations passed by ICASA to regulate that, because that will certainly streamline things. At the moment, it's quite a political minefield to actually get that peering."
And then there's still the question of reliably transferring data to remote areas. Says Van den Burgh: "Delivering services into remote under-served areas terrestrially is often based on single routes, with little or no alternate routing to provide a resilient backbone network." This means companies like Gateway have to address network resilience by providing satellite-based restoration services on a usage basis.
Wilson notes that access to capital is often a hindrance in developing the infrastructure. "[Rolling out connectivity] is usually capital-intensive. Because of the geographic layout of our country, it will have to be done via wireless communications, and so we're really relying on the pricings of the cellular offerings that are available to be able to do it. Logistics are also difficult in South Africa. Things like getting approval to trench up roads and put in the infrastructure is a time-consuming process. The technology is there and the companies are there, but the skills shortage will be a hassle for getting it into the market quickly."
Nourse maintains current telecoms offerings are expensive because the industry is dominated by a handful of major players: "Telkom and the three main cellphone providers. [And], unfortunately, none of them have figured out how to tap into the greater population. They are currently only servicing a minority in terms of a complete offering of voice and data, mainly in the urban centres, and are focused on profitability and not reach and number of people connected."
Adds Wilson: "Sometimes these providers are run too much by accountants looking at the numbers and saying, 'That's where we need to focus our infrastructure'. But they don't realise the customer loyalty and the nuances behind providing the service."
And still, even once these hurdles are dealt with nationally, intracontinental connectivity will need to be dealt with.
Says Van den Bergh: "The major challenge in many countries is that the domestic and cross-border networks are not well developed, and so an intelligent hybrid combination of many technologies - fibre, satellite, microwave and other wireless technologies - is required in order to provide these levels of penetration."
The human connection
If current penetration in SA is less than 20%, Wilson notes that educating end-users will influence the process.
"It doesn't help having 80% coverage and only 20% of your constituents can use that coverage. People need to be taught how to use computers. I think that's probably the bigger challenge rather than the infrastructural layout by 2020."
Nourse agrees: "The general feeling among industry players is that getting new users connected is too slow. If you're not bringing new users onto the networks, you are limited in terms of an explosion of consumption. Average users use 30% more bandwidth year-on-year, but if you really want an explosion of data consumption, you need to add the number of users who are doing to same amount of growth. It just changes the game."
So there is a long road to travel between now and 2020, and it would seem government and the telecoms industry have a lot to do if the mandated 80% to 100% coverage is to be met. But the feeling is that it is possible, so watch this space.
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