The Department of Mineral Resources and Energy is adamant SA could end load-shedding within 12 months, by creating a conducive environment to enable adequate and large-scale use of solar photovoltaic (PV) energy.
This was the word from Mthokozisi Mpofu, acting DG of the Department of Mineral Resources and Energy, delivering a keynote address at the Solar Power Africa Conference 2023, in Cape Town, this week.
Mpofu provided a landscape of SA’s planned intervention to the ongoing energy crisis, noting government anticipates the exponential growth globally of the renewable energy industry will make a significant contribution to the value chain of the South African economy.
SA’s electricity crisis has had disastrous ramifications on economic activity – with load-shedding of six to 12 hours a day, costing the country between R204 million and R899 million, according to the South African Reserve Bank.
As SA continues to experience unprecedented power cuts, Mpofu believes renewable energy − particularly solar PV − will play a pivotal role in curtailing the electricity challenges besetting the country.
“SA has had increased adoption of solar power because of the solutions it provides. The issue of load-shedding could be dealt with within a year, and the solar industry has a key role to play there,” he stated.
“So, let's devise solutions that could work in the urban space, let's devise solutions that could work in the rural space, let's devise solutions that are customisable to different environments. As an industry, we have to continue having discussions and developing solutions that will take the industry forward.”
Last month, finance minister Enoch Godongwana sparked public debate when he stated SA has a plan to improve energy provision that will end the need for load-shedding within the next 12 to 18 months. He made the claim during an interview with Reuters at the World Economic Forum.
Godongwana added government has upgraded facilities and introduced measures − such as demand management − to eliminate stage six load-shedding within about five months.
This week, at the Solar Power Africa Conference 2023, citing the International Energy Agency’s global renewable power forecast, Mpofu pointed out renewables are set to account for more than 90% of global electricity capacity expansion over the 2022-2027 period, growing by almost 2 400GW.
According to Mpofu, SA’s renewable energy procurement programme currently has 102 renewable energy projects, totalling more than 7 823MW of renewable energy, with solar PV making up a capacity of 3 267MW.
“We anticipate the growth of the renewables industry will have a significant contribution to the value chain in the South African context and it will spearhead economic recovery, given the high level of unemployment.
“Even beyond SA, the renewables industry still has a role to play in regions such as SADC, especially the solar PV industry, which provides tried-and-tested solutions that enable easier transition to renewables.”
Multibillion-rand solution
Government's Integrated Resource Plan, gazetted in 2019, states 78GW of energy capacity is needed by SA by 2030.
Speaking to ITWeb on the sidelines of the Solar Power Africa Conference, Michael Rycroft, engineer, energy expert and Nowmedia features editor, explained that eliminating load-shedding within one year is a near impossible mission, due to the complexities presented by the current state of energy affairs in SA.
“Anything is possible if you throw enough money at it, but to transition away from coal, SA would need a multibillion-rand investment. To say they can end it in 12 months is being very ambitious; I don't think they've looked at the amount of storage that will be required.
“Government is developing a battery energy storage system which is worth R11 billion, and this won’t even begin to scratch the surface in storing the energy required to resolve load-shedding,” he commented.
According to Rycroft, to support the transition to renewables, SA would need to produce an additional five to six GW of renewable energy capacity – preferably a solid base of mixed energy sources, including semi-clean, clean and coal-powered energy.
“SA would need about five or six GW of extra energy that would contribute to about 20GW of power. At the moment, we only generate about 3GW.
“But you can't take that leap into one source of renewable power like they've done in certain parts of Europe – where they've jumped into a chasm and now there's no safety net. So I would say a combination of gas, solar and coal, so if the coal stations were in good condition, this would allow us to eliminate load-shedding completely, but in a reasonable amount of time,” noted Rycroft.
Rein Snoeck Henkemans, MD of Alumo Energy, also told ITWeb it is unlikely that SA could end load-shedding within 12 months.
“While renewable energy solutions have made great strides in recent years and have the potential to provide a significant amount of electricity to SA, it would likely take much more time and resources to fully eliminate load-shedding across the country.
“This is because renewable energy sources like wind and solar still face challenges, such as intermittency, limited storage capabilities, and a lack of infrastructure to support widespread deployment.”
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