South Africa’s installed solar capacity is expected to grow from 6.68 gigawatts (GW) in 2024 to 11.03 GW by 2029, driven by the increasing demand for clean energy.
This is according to renewable industry body, the South African Photovoltaic Industry Association (SAPVIA), a non-profit industry association established in 2010, to promote, develop and grow the photovoltaic (PV) industry as part of the wider renewable energy sector in South Africa.
The industry body says the world’s appetite for electricity shows no signs of abating. It notes that a recent report by the International Energy Agency (IEA) says the growth in demand in 2024 and 2025 is forecast to be among the highest levels in the past two decades. Solar PV alone is expected to meet half of the increase, they estimate.
“Authors in this report say the world’s demand for electricity is rising at its fastest rate in years, driven by robust economic growth, intense heatwaves and the increasing uptake of technologies that run on electricity such as EVs [electric vehicles] and heat pumps. At the same time, renewables continue their rapid ascent, with solar PV on course to set new records,” says Dr Rethabile Melamu, CEO of SAPVIA.
“This is a positive prediction for the future for members of our industry here at home as well,” she adds.
According to SAPVIA, the amount of electricity generated by renewables worldwide in 2025 is forecast to eclipse the amount generated by coal for the first time.
Solar PV alone is expected to meet roughly half of the growth in global electricity demand over 2024 and 2025 – with solar and wind combined meeting as much as three-quarters of the growth, according to the IEA.
Keisuke Sadamori, IEA director of energy markets and security, says “It’s encouraging to see clean energy’s share of the electricity mix continuing to rise, but this needs to happen at a much faster rate to meet international energy and climate goals.
“At the same time, it’s crucial to expand and reinforce grids to provide citizens with secure and reliable electricity supply – and to implement higher energy efficiency standards to reduce the impacts of increased cooling demand on power systems.”
SAPVIA is one of the contributors to the recent Global Market Outlook for Solar 2024 – 2028 report.
“We will see the climate emergency continuing to capture governments’ attention and energy security remaining the new compelling argument to invest in solar power in a quickly fragmenting world order,” says Melamu.
For the first time, this latest outlook report contained policy recommendations from solar’s global industry organisation, the Global Solar Council.
SAPVIA notes that this includes asks for setting ambitious national targets, and immediate efforts to unleash the flexibility revolution by scaling up investments in battery storage, grids, and electrification.
On the South African stage, Melamu says there are several highlights for 2024 that are worth celebrating:
- Government Support and Policy Initiatives: The Renewable Energy Independent Power Producer Procurement programme continues to attract investment, supporting the development of new solar projects.
- Private Solar PV Expansion: There has been a notable increase in private solar installations, with capacity rising from 2 264MW in July 2022 to 6 165MW by October 2024.
- Technological Advancements: Advances in PV technology and the development of new solar projects are expected to further boost the sector.
2025 predictions
- Continued Growth in Capacity: The solar energy market is projected to continue its growth trajectory, with additional generation capacity expected from both private sector projects and government initiatives.
- Increased Private Sector Participation: More private sector projects are anticipated to connect to the grid, contributing to the overall increase in solar capacity.
- Completion of Ongoing Projects: Several projects from previous bid windows are expected to reach completion, adding to the national grid.
- Focus on Sustainability: The emphasis on reducing reliance on coal-based power plants will drive further investments in solar energy.
- Economic and Environmental Benefits: The expansion of the solar sector is expected to create economic opportunities and contribute to South Africa’s decarbonization commitments.
“The solar energy sector in South Africa is poised for significant growth, with strong support from both the government and private sector, making it an exciting space to watch this year,” says Melamu.
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