Players in the renewable energy sector believe they can rescue SA from the rolling power blackouts introduced by Eskom this week.
The debt-ridden Eskom yesterday said the electricity system had become so severely constrained that it necessitated the company implementing stage two rotational load-shedding.
Stage two rotational load-shedding is currently being implemented from 09:00 until 23:00 today.
Eskom acting group chief executive Jabu Mabuza says: “We understand the inconvenience that comes with load-shedding and want to assure our customers and South Africans at large that our objective is not to implement load-shedding; if necessary, to do so at minimal levels and with as much predictability as possible.”
Load-shedding is being implemented as a measure of last resort, as unplanned breakdowns are currently above 10 500MW, impacting Eskom’s ability to meet the current demand, the power utility notes.
Following the load-shedding announcement by Eskom, the Basic Education Department, which had commenced with practical exams in Computer Applications and Information Technology on Wednesday and Thursday, said it would monitor the impact and look at contingency measures where necessary.
“In order to protect the power system from a total collapse or blackout and having taken into account all the recovery efforts currently being implemented, our prognosis for Thursday is that stage two rotational load-shedding will be implemented from 09:00 to 23:00.
“This requires a total of 2 000MW be load-shed throughout the country,” says Mabuza.
Eskom reminded South Africans that in some areas, the restoration of electricity following load-shedding may take longer.
Availability factor
Reacting to the latest bout of load-shedding, renewable energy industry body, the South African Photovoltaic Industry Association (SAPVIA) says Eskom is currently implementing load-shedding because the availability factor for its large coal power plants is low, with recent commentaries highlighting that one-fifth of its power stations are broken at any one time.
It points out the impact of the low availability factor is best offset by adding generation capacity to the grid.
“Solar photovoltaic power has proven to be a reliable and cost-effective addition to the generation mix, and it is also marked out by the fact that generating capacity can be deployed over very short timeframes of around a year for large facilities.
“Furthermore, the relatively small fleet of renewable energy projects has already helped Eskom to avert past potential load-shedding, which is estimated to cost the economy R90 / per an unavailable MWHr,” the organisation says.
According to SAPVIA, the fleet of operational and grid-connected solar PV projects contracted under the Renewable Energy Independent Power Producer Procurement (REIPPP) Programme have a generating capacity of 1 474MW, while concentrated solar power projects account for 500MW of capacity.
SAPVIA believes the swift implementation of round five of the REIPPP, as well as an immediate effort to gazette an amendment to schedule two of the Electricity Regulation Act – allowing for licensing exemptions for projects under 10MW – would greatly boost renewable energy in the country.
“In addition, we believe the adoption of a pragmatic and realistic integrated resource plan, which is based on least-cost and realistic energy solutions, will boost the proliferation of renewable energy, as the power source of choice in South Africa.”
Decommissioning plan
Another renewable energy industry body, the South African Wind Energy Association (SAWEA), concurs that load-shedding is a clear symptom of the Eskom fleet’s reduced energy availability factor.
This also indicates a need to procure new generation capacity in order to bring the energy availability factor to healthy levels again, SAWEA notes.
SAWEA CEO Ntombifuthi Ntuli comments that the minister of mineral resources and energy, Gwede Mantashe, indicated at Windaba that a decommissioning plan (for ageing power stations) will be published as part of the IRP, so as these power plants go offline over the next 10 years, the capacity will need to be replaced in order to avoid load-shedding problems.
“Our view is that this capacity needs to be replaced with the energy mix that takes into consideration the need to decarbonise the energy system at least cost,” Ntuli says.
“Wind energy should be a big part of that mix and it’s quick to build (commercial operation within 24 months) and will reduce the cost of energy in SA, improve our competitiveness, which should boost the economy, particularly through investments in the manufacturing sector. Therefore, as soon as the IRP is gazetted, we need to move swiftly into ministerial determinations and then procurement.”
According to Ntuli, besides utility scale generation, the wind industry can supply electricity directly to energy intensive users’ challenges through signing private power purchase agreements, which should address a lot of the capacity challenges and ultimately avoid load-shedding.
She notes the wind power market has already procured over 3 366MW since the start of the REI4P.
“Within this, wind power produces over 52% of total renewable power, with more than 1 300 wind turbines generating renewable electricity into the national grid.”
Ntuli adds that being at a key stage of the country’s energy transition, SAWEA hopes the country’s plentiful wind resources will be harnessed to strengthen the country’s power mix, considering the clear evidence that renewable power costs are competitive with that of new coal.
A study by the Centre for Scientific and Industrial Research indicates the wind resource potential in SA is extremely good, she explains.
“It has concluded that wind turbines with extraordinarily high load factors could be operated on 80% of our surface area, along the coast but also inland.
“The industry holds the potential to affect further broad-reaching needs for economic growth and societal upliftment, across South Africa, through clean power generation, rural social beneficiary programmes and stimulating investment. By adopting an approach that both smooths out annual wind energy procurement and raises annual procurement limits on renewables it can create many more jobs in construction and manufacturing.”
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