Can you remember your first car? Perhaps it was a busted-up VW in some gaudy colour you drove all through varsity; or the old family station wagon you took your first cross-country trip in. For some, it's an extension of their personality; for others, it has four wheels and gets you from A to B and back. Many will never own one at all.
Cars, driving, and the spaces between have made headlines lately, thanks to the much-reviled e-tolling project, public transport initiatives like the Gautrain, as well as the recent petrol hikes.
But there's another aspect fuelling the debate. Large-scale urbanisation will soon lead to major cities around the world acquiring mega-region status, with populations in the hundreds of millions. This will place massive strain on existing infrastructure and require a complete redesign of urban transport systems.
If gridlock wasn't bad enough already, the UN Environment Programme warns that the number of cars on the world's roads will triple by 2050, with around 80% of this growth occurring in the booming economies of the developing world. That translates into a whole lot of congestion, pollution and demand for public transit. Future solutions will have to emphasise actual mobility, not simply add more vehicles to already clogged roadways.
As the relentless march to cities continues, urban centres will have to rely on integrated communication, transport and building systems to accommodate the growth. If we're lucky, a web of high-speed trains, electric busses and smaller vehicles will serve as arteries through the city, interlinked by ICT systems, which co-ordinate times and routes. Alternatively, obscene petrol costs, traffic snarl-ups and a haze of smog will cripple economic productivity, not to mention our collective sanity.
Mobility mindset
Another element altering the transport blueprint is the growing awareness of climate change. Given the transport sector accounts for around a quarter of all energy-related CO2 emissions, a number only set to rise in future, the industry is going to have to undergo a major overhaul. Concerns about the environment and resource availability have seen a wave of hybrid and electric vehicles enter the market, along with new fuel technologies.
The car as we know it will change, although even its makers aren't quite sure how yet.
Lezette Engelbrecht, online features editor, ITWeb
The problem is, the future city dweller won't just want a zippy, low-carbon car. Urbanites will require everything from quick access options for short trips to cross-city modes for extended journeys. The world's design wizards have spotted the gap, and innovation in more efficient and adaptable travel is zooming ahead. In the labs of MIT, for example, researchers have developed an electric scooter that can be folded up and wheeled about like a trolley suitcase - affordable, convenient, and eco-friendly.
These advances are driving an entire shift in our concept of getting around. Just like communication is no longer tied to a landline phone, so city transport is evolving into a service which you can access via various channels.
One idea that emerged while chatting to transport specialists recently was that in future, you won't buy a car, you'll buy mobility.
It's a concept that shakes the foundations of one of the world's biggest industries, and one which has seen little change in the fundamentals of its product. While there have been improvements in cars' design and engineering, the basic size, fuelling system, wheel count and mechanics have stayed pretty standard. Now, auto manufacturers are beginning to realise that the old petrol car is destined for the junkyard, as fossil fuels run dry and transport needs evolve. The car as we know it will change, although even its makers aren't quite sure how yet.
Mercedes-Benz, BMW and Audi are all working on “mega city” cars, and exploring mobility solutions not strictly tied to physical vehicles. BMW's new “i” brand, for example, includes not only two electric models, but supports the systems they depend on. Its MyCityWay app aggregates city information sources into a single feed and, when integrated with the new cars, lets travellers make the switch from personal to public transport or find nearby charging points.
This trend will see cars becoming increasingly dependent on ICT, not only through software that enables efficient driving, automated parking, and collision alerts, but as a means to communicate with the numerous other machines traversing tracks, streets, sidewalks and roadways.
Fusion confusion
The coming fusion of mobility, context and communication will change the way people interact with their environment. The city will no longer exist as an assembly of discrete systems and entities, but a connected network adapted to people's immediate needs. While cars will inevitably get smarter, could this glut of hybridised, interconnected transport solutions result in the car disappearing altogether?
Probably not, although, that's what they said about the horse carriage when the first automobiles made their appearance. Nonetheless, I suspect it will take a lot longer for cars, traditional or hi-tech, to be phased out. They're still too deeply ingrained in our socio-cultural make-up: cars are status symbols, a form of personal expression, a marker of shared journeys and new beginnings. They're one of the best examples of domesticated machinery. That's not something likely to be wiped out in a few decades.
That said, humans have also been known to get over their sense of attachment rather easily when something new and improved comes along. We swap nostalgia for novelty, especially when it accompanies a shift in social ideals and economic realities. Either way, cars are likely to become a less iconic signifier of travel, sharing the role with new and varied modes. In future, getting around will no longer be synonymous with jumping behind a wheel, but flexible and context-specific.
Mobility has become a buzzword in every other sphere of life - in devices, the workplace, entertainment, and social interaction. Everything is about making services available where you need them, when you need them, with as little fuss as possible. Why not extend that philosophy to our own movements?
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