Mobile commerce has not failed: it has only started

Contrary to the popular opinion that mobile commerce is a non-starter, Michael Renzon, MD of Intelleca Voice & Mobile, argues: "We ain`t seen nothing yet". The problem with mobile commerce (m-commerce) is that it was born in the middle of the Internet bubble. As was the custom of those times, it was immediately hyped beyond all realms of reality, and years ahead of the technology`s capabilities.

If all the experts responsible for the hype were made responsible for their predictions and not allowed to practise if they got it wrong, the industry would have a much healthier image and the public would be looking forward to the wireless wonders of m-commerce, not contemplating its supposed failure. If these experts are to be taken seriously, we would already have the technical abilities to do things most literate people have not even thought of unless they are Star Trek fans.

Unfortunately, developing any type of technology takes a certain amount of time and money, especially when delivering products accessible and affordable to the average user. Take any of the predictions of what m-commerce would allow us to do right now, include all the speculation about how many billions it would generate, add anywhere between three and 10 years to it and you will find yourself looking at reality.

There are four broad phases, or steps involved in the development of mobile technology and the solutions that accompany it (such as m-commerce). Before the technology becomes a standard, ubiquitous solution available to the mass market, the different phases have to be developed, integrated and work together in a seamless whole, invisible to the user.

If one takes interactive TV as an example, first we had TV sets that were reliable and easy enough for anyone to use; then we needed modem technology to be able to interact; then came set-top boxes to make the process even simpler. The technology is there, but the commercial barrier to mainstream acceptance was the need to configure everything and the complexity associated with that. To be adopted in the mainstream market, technology needs to be easy to use and configure - a cellular telephone is a complex piece of technology, but it is simple to buy one and make a call.

In the case of m-commerce, all the prerequisite phases to developing mass-market solutions are in progress, but they still need to come together in a seamless whole before we will see mainstream success. Already certain technologies - such as the BlackBerry mobile e-mail device - are excelling, but only in certain vertical markets. The parts of the whole associated with a successful m-commerce market that are in development right now are:

Bandwidth requirements: The first issue the mobile industry needs to overcome is the requirement for sufficient bandwidth to carry signals backwards and forwards at a reasonable speed. The delivery of global system for mobile communications (GSM) networks was a first step in this regard, but GSM is not designed for the large-scale data movement m-commerce needs.

Now we have the beginnings of networking technology that will provide the bandwidth required. In South Africa, companies have started rolling out general packet radio service (GPRS) networks, which will address these needs to some extent. In Europe, third-generation (3G) networks are being rolled out that meet m-commerce needs perfectly. Of course, having the network is pretty much useless if we do not have the hardware with which we can hook ourselves up to the network and remain connected.

Immediate access: We have devices that can connect us to the wireless Net right now. The failure of these devices is that they do not provide immediate and continuous access - a critical step in the road to m-commerce. Wireless application protocol (WAP), for example, provides access points to commercial WAP-enabled sites and enables companies to include commerce functionality on these sites, but initial implementations were slow and cumbersome. At best, the user has to wait for 15 to 30 seconds to connect to the network before downloading information to the mobile device or attempting any transaction.

GPRS will provide South Africans with the ability to connect and remain online continuously as well as with the additional benefits associated with m-commerce to a large degree (but it will not provide us with the richness 3G permits). Immediate and continuous access has many advantages, but it also creates the problem of privacy and invasive techniques businesses can use to try to sell you their goods via the wireless mechanism.

The method of connection may also vary. The user may decide to connect via a laptop or directly via a mobile device, whichever is most convenient at the time. Manufacturers will find this problem even greater than the technical issues - how do they make it easy for customers to do the most convenient thing without producing a different device for every occasion? It is vital they do not make the interactive TV mistake and require complex configuration.

Simplicity is key: About 70% of the mobile phones in SA are WAP-enabled, but market penetration in terms of usage is less than 1%. Why would that be? The reason is the effort users must go to in order to set their cellular telephones up for WAP commerce and the effort required in "logging on" and transacting. Many people thought they would try WAP and then lost interest because it was too involved and slow. Device manufacturers need to make their gadgets smarter and simpler to configure, and application developers need to make it a simple as possible for the user to spend money. Usability is key when customers have other options.

Ergonomics: The fact of the matter is that even with a network, immediate access and simple devices and applications, not all devices are as good or as well designed for specific tasks. Some products, such as the BlackBerry, may be excellent for downloading and responding to e-mail, but a conventionally designed cellular telephone may not.

This is where things get tricky for manufacturers since they need to develop applications people want to use as well as easy-to-use devices - bearing in mind that we will not accept having to carry multiple devices for different applications. Some sort of middle ground needs to be found. For example, the traditional mobile telephone keyboard is an acceptable compromise for short message service (SMS) functionality, but certainly not for sending normal e-mails and lengthy memos.

In examining the above, we find the industry in the process of developing individual solutions that, when integrated, will deliver ubiquitous mobile solutions to the mass market. Yet, even when the manufacturers are ready to offer their individual solutions, the cost and complexity of bringing all the functionality together in the format and combinations users want will be another headache. Then, getting the services out into the market and broadly accepted will be the final obstacle.

It costs networks and organisations to roll out these functional phases: the cost of installing a GRPS network, for example. The return on investment (ROI) model for the roll-out is a challenge because it comes with no guarantee that users will use the final product. Therefore the m-commerce applications to be offered will be the honey to attract the masses and must be targeted at certain market segments where the services are necessary. Plans must also take into account that getting GPRS-enabled mobile devices into the market will take about two to three years because current users are most likely on a contract with their service provider and will upgrade to GPRS devices when renewing their contracts. Once these issues are dealt with, m-commerce will be ready to explode.

It will be at least five years before we have a device that can be all things to all users. In the meanwhile, the reality is that different people will want to use mobile services for different purposes, and probably want devices suited to those purposes. We are therefore on the verge of an experimentation period in m-commerce evolution.

The hype we are about to experience as different devices and applications hit the market will resemble the time when consumer devices, such as the calculator-watch were all the rage. There will be a lot of experimentation from manufacturers and users as they decide which services they like and which they don`t.

Right now there are many companies fighting to make their own technologies the future standards, but ubiquity is still a way off. After the experimentation stage, starting in about three to five years, a period of consolidation will start in which some of the experiments will vanish and others will gather more user support. Focusing on what works and sells, companies will expand their offerings in these specific areas.

The real future of m-commerce and the applications and devices that will define this era will emerge from there.

One of the technologies that has been in development for years is speech recognition and a speech-driven interface. Speech will play a major role in the ubiquity of m-commerce. Already we have the stepping stones in place where customers can use speech to conduct commercial ventures over their mobile devices - although these are still new and relatively young applications. An example of this is booking a Ster-Kinekor movie ticket over the telephone. Speech-driven interfaces will open the door to an endless line of applications. Instead of concerning themselves with a tiny keypad on their cellular telephones, users will be able to access services by simply saying their instructions over the telephone. For example, instead of trying to type an e-mail message on your cellular keypad, you will be able to simply dictate the message into your phone and then have the device either translate it to text or send the message to the recipient as a "v-mail".

Of course, some people may prefer using a keypad for some services. Entering a password by saying it aloud would not be very secure. We will therefore see multi-modal technologies becoming the market norm in a few years, allowing the user to choose the most convenient method of interaction. Just as the mouse became the pointer for graphical computing, I am certain voice recognition will play an essential role in making m-commerce ubiquitous.

There is an enormous amount of work going into the various pieces of the mobile puzzle. When these parts come together, they will form a powerful solution that will sell itself by demonstrating the ability to provide substantial value to its users. However, m-commerce users, be they businesses or individuals, will only invest in solutions that serve their needs and deliver simplicity, mobility, standards and broad access. To meet these needs, the players in this market are taking a much more pragmatic approach than companies in the Internet bubble ever did. Once the period of consolidation is over, solutions providing real benefits to users will emerge and m-commerce will start to deliver on the promises made over the course of the past few years. At this stage it is impossible to say which solutions or products will be the killer apps; the only way to find out will be in the market where the users will vote with their airtime minutes.