MTN, which released its financial results today, expects to net 1.5 million subscribers in Iran by December.
This is "highly conditional" upon the group launching its Iranian operations by the specified August deadline, says MTN Group CEO Phuthuma Nhleko. However, he is confident the deadline will be met and Iran will become the third large contributor to the group in terms of subscribers.
The two largest subscriber bases at present are SA, with 10.24 million subscribers at the end of December last year, and Nigeria, with 8.37 million subscribers.
Nhleko describes the roll-out obligations in Iran as onerous. These include a stipulation that the network must cover half of the 69 million-strong population in the first year.
However, more than 60% of the population are urbanised, with Tehran alone accounting for 12 million to 15 million people. "This is conducive for high early network roll-out," Nhleko says.
An analyst says he feels the subscriber target in Iran is "a little ambitious", but adds Nhleko appears reasonably confident this is achievable. "I suppose we`ll find out in December," he adds.
Nhleko says the group is examining a request for proposals for an Egyptian licence, but has not yet made a decision in that regard.
Results
MTN presented its results for the nine months to end-December this morning, as it has changed its year-end to December, which it says is in line with its operational cycle and aligns it with international peers.
The group`s total subscriber base grew 48% from 15.64 million at the end of March last year to 23.19 million. MTN counts a subscriber as one who made a revenue-generating call within the past 90 days.
With new investments - Congo-Brazzaville, Botswana, Ivory Coast and Zambia - stripped out, the group would still have achieved a 36% increase to 21.32 million subscribers.
The group achieved revenue of R27.21 billion for the nine months, against full-year revenue of R28.99 billion for the 12 months to March 2005. The group achieved earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation (EBITDA) of R11.2 billion, with an EBITDA margin of 41.3%.
Earnings per share came in at 352.7c and the group declared a dividend of 65c a share. Adjusted headline earnings per share, which exclude a tax credit in Nigeria, amounted to 338.2c.
On a comparable basis, the nine months to December 2004 saw revenue of R21.5 billion, and EBITDA of R8.6 billion, with the EBITDA margin at 39.8%.
"All our geographies were above 45% with the exception of SA, which has a structural problem with intermediaries being quite big and taking away from EBITDA margin," Nhleko says.
Nhleko expects subscribers in SA to increase by two million by the end of December, and expects to add another 3.5 million in Nigeria.
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