The mobile industry has entered a new era, with the focus shifting from the device to applications and services.
Gartner vice-president and distinguished analyst Nick Jones notes that, increasingly, people use their phones for more than just making calls, driving interest in applications and the various app stores springing up.
This comes as the rapid adoption of smartphones enables new opportunities for developers. “The percentage of smartphones to feature phones has increased in SA, so there is a far larger market available to application developers,” says BMI-TechKnowledge research analyst Ryan Smit.
Gartner recently released predictions for the top 10 consumer mobile applications in 2012, with money transfer and location-based services (LBS) coming in as forerunners. According to the firm, LBS' high-user value is due to its ability to meet a range of needs, from productivity and goal fulfilment, to social networking and entertainment.
JBB Research CEO Julien Blin says location-based apps are becoming more capable, allowing users to share their location with others and receive coupons based on their location.
Smit adds that LBS are useful because they combine location data with Internet data regarding that area. “Most examples of location-based apps involve finding products and services, which are close by, or searching for social network friends and alerting you when they are nearby.”
Jones argues that location is one step in creating a more sophisticated context, with apps bringing relevant information to users when and where they need it. He calls this the “moment of need”.
“It will include location, but not be limited to it. For example, if I'm a coffee addict, in my 'moment of need', the phone can tell me there's a Starbucks round the corner.”
According to Jones, while today's applications are typically reactive, in future, simple proactive apps will emerge. “In the next five years or so, we'll see the integration of location with things like calendar and behaviour.
“So, in future, my phone could say: 'It's your wife's birthday today, and because traffic is bad the florist is likely to be closed by the time you get there, but there's one around the corner, which two of your friends have used successfully.”
Social scene
Adding a social networking element to these context-based services enhances their relevance and usefulness, notes Jones. “If the app knows who your friends are, it can improve the context. Future context-based apps are going to be all about the social aspect.”
According to Blin, social networking is set to become a key driver for higher adoption of mobile Internet use, especially in Africa. “It makes the mobile Web more relevant, interactive, and appealing, especially for the young generation who want to stay in touch with their friends via their cellphone.”
He mentions Gowalla, Foursquare, and Loopt as prime examples of location-based applications with strong social elements. While their specific focus and capabilities vary slightly, all three apps work as social mapping tools, with users “checking in” to certain locations, and then sharing and searching for information about friends' whereabouts, browsing nearby events, as well as uploading and accessing multimedia of their surroundings.
“Social networking will become predominantly a mobile experience in the future,” says Smit, with PC access used for intensive and occasional use. “The combination of social networking information with other data will form the basis for many mobile applications in the future, and will increasingly be incorporated into new smartphone operating systems,” he adds.
Looking ahead, Blin predicts mobile applications will become more capable, location-aware, and interoperable. “In future, you'll see mobile users being able to recommend, beg or gift a mobile app available on the Ovi Store to their friend who is using a competing mobile app store, such as Apple or RIM.”
Jones adds that more advanced location services will be enhanced by things like an electronic compass, or tilting on the phone, which could lead to behaviour-tracking. “For example, if the app picks up that you've been to a specific shop three times that week, it may send you a related advert.”
According to the Gartner report, the emergence of context-aware services is likely to be one of the most disruptive market developments in the next few years. The firm expects the global LBS user base will grow from 96 million in 2009, to more than 526 million in 2012.
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