Power utility Eskom has committed to diversifying its energy sources by launching 2 000MW of clean energy projects, as part of its push for a sustainable energy future.
This emerged yesterday, when the state-owned company presented its outlook for 1 September 2024 to 31 March 2025.
It also provided an update on its current business operations following five months (152 consecutive days) without load-shedding, including the entire winter season.
In a statement, the power utility says the Generation Operational Recovery Plan, which commenced in March 2023, continues to enhance efficiencies for Eskom and deliver a structural shift in fleet performance.
Based on the improved generation performance, the base case scenario indicates there will be no load-shedding if unplanned outages stay at 13 000MW or below, it says.
Eskom has been gradually introducing renewable energy power to the national grid, as it struggled to maintain electricity supply across the country.
This, as some coal-powered power stations were reaching their end of life and, over the years, the utility faced maintenance challenges at these plants.
Eskom chairman Mteto Nyati recently told ITWeb TV that South Africa is unlikely to have load-shedding in 2025, as the company continues to improve its generation capacity.
Key performance highlights
Eskom notes there was no load-shedding during winter 2024, compared to 153 days of load-shedding in winter 2023.
It adds that as a result, there was a potential 2% growth for the South African economy and improved financial performance for Eskom in financial year 2025 (1 April 2024 to 31 March 2025).
According to Eskom, during winter, there was reduced unplanned capacity loss factor, averaging 12 400MW, reaching a 12-month low of 11 300MW in July 2024. This marks a 20% improvement and is 3 100MW better than the 15 500MW likely scenario in the winter 2024 outlook.
The power utility surpassed its planned maintenance target of 3 677MW, achieving an average of 4 799MW during winter 2024 – a notable improvement over the past two years, it says.
There was also a sustained increase in the energy availability factor, rising from 57% in April 2024, to 67.02% by the end of July 2024 – an improvement of 10.02%.
It also saw reduced reliance on open-cycle gas turbines, which resulted in a 74% reduction in diesel costs, saving over R10 billion compared to the same period last year.
Consequently, Eskom states this year’s summer outlook base case has been revised downwards by 1 500MW from the previous (2023/24) summer outlook.
“For a scenario where unplanned outages rise to 14 000MW, stage one load-shedding could be implemented. The unlikely scenario of unplanned outages at 15 000MW will at worst result in stage two load-shedding. The trend in the performance of the fleet has reduced both the base case unplanned capacity assumption, and the possible intensity in the event that load-shedding is needed.
“It is noteworthy that the 2023/24 summer outlook was based on unplanned outages ranging between 14 500MW and 17 000MW, which necessitated the implementation of stage seven load-shedding as a worst-case scenario – a scenario that was successfully avoided.”
Eskom says it aims to add approximately 2 500MW of generation capacity by January 2025 through meticulous implementation of recovery plans.
It says Koeberg Nuclear Power Station Unit 2 is expected to return to service from a long-term outage in December 2024, bringing 930MW to the grid.
Kusile Unit 6 will be synchronised for the first time into the grid in December 2024, adding 800MW of capacity. The return of Medupi Unit 4 from an extended outage will add another 800MW before the financial year-end.
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