Change is changing

Change is a constant in the IT sector. IT departments should be used to it, but they have a new challenge - it is the very nature of change that is changing.

The message from Debra Logan, VP and distinguished analyst at international research firm Gartner, is: "Things are changing in an unexpected way, and we just have to get used to it."

She spoke to ITWeb ahead of the Gartner annual Symposium/ITXpo in Cape Town this week.

"What this actually will mean for IT departments and the CIOs who have to manage the budgets is still to be seen, but the fact is that change in the ICT sector is no longer just about technology.

"People have got used to technology. It has become a part of their everyday lives, at work and in the home, so they are no longer intimidated by it, and it has lost a lot of its mystery," Logan says.

The world is entering a period of great uncertainty, but it will be how people react to this change that will be the key factor, she adds.

"The world has moved out of a period of high growth and low inflation to one where economic growth has slowed, but prices are rising. This leads to higher interest rates and weakening consumer spending."

The knock-on effect of this still has to be played out, she says, but there will be consequences, some of which are already being felt. "The oil price has rocketed to record highs, even though demand in the developed countries has been dropping for two years running. Concern for the environment is becoming more evident, as active ways are being sought to reduce greenhouse gases."

Logan continues: "The CIO has to factor all those in to his or her planning and find an answer to all the conflicting demands the enterprise will place on his or her shoulders. This will mean making better use of technology so executives do not have to travel as much; and trying to cut the budget, because overall profit margins have been squeezed."

Earlier this year, Gartner issued an advisory to CIOs saying they should prepare two budgets. The first will be the standard one for the financial year ahead, and the second should be one that can be pulled out if spending has to be slashed; in other words, the plan B, she says.

Enterprises will look at their IT departments to help cut spending, but what they will do with the money saved is the question.

Debra Logan, VP at Gartner

"Enterprises will look at their IT departments to help cut spending, but what they will do with the money saved is the question," Logan says. "Will they use that money to help shore up other parts of the enterprise, or will they use it to do something with their technology that will make them a real differentiator?"

That differentiator could be the catalyst that generates the next "Black Swan event" that, in turn, could radically change the world again, she says.

Such an event, as defined by former Wall Street financial analyst and author Nicholas Taleb, is unpredictable, disruptive by its very nature and can have a profound influence on our lives.

Logan says the management of information is now at the boardroom level of an enterprise and information must be managed to have meaningful content, which means business intelligence will become ever more important.

Other issues clamouring for the CIO's time are skills shortages, green IT, and managing the information overload, while ensuring it has the right tools and knowledge at hand, she concludes.