Worldwide smartphone shipments are forecast to grow 5.8% year-over-year in 2024, to 1.23 billion units.
This is according to the International Data Corporation’s (IDC’s) Worldwide Quarterly Mobile Phone Tracker.
The market analyst firm notes the 12% growth in the first quarter, followed by 9% growth last quarter, brought optimism about how the smartphone market will play out in the second half of the year.
Affordable Android smartphones continue to grow rapidly in emerging markets, coming off a difficult two years, while premium markets are starting to embrace generative artificial intelligence (GenAI) smartphones, prompting excitement and renewed interest in the industry, says IDC.
“The improved forecast for 2024 cements the road to recovery for the smartphone market, driven by stronger growth for Android devices in China and emerging markets,” says Nabila Popal, senior research director with IDC's Worldwide Quarterly Mobile Phone Tracker.
“The resulting growth for Android this year will be nine times faster at 7.1% than iOS at 0.8%. Apple’s softer growth is a result of increasing competition in China, but also a higher comparison base year.”
However, Popal notes there is a potential upside to the iOS forecast, with a lot depending on how well the demonstrated GenAI use cases play out in the upcoming iPhone 16 launch and how soon Apple can establish local AI partnerships in China.
IDC expects the iOS trajectory to improve in 2025, with 4% year-over-year growth thanks to Apple Intelligence, which is already creating a lot of excitement and is expected to gain momentum next year and encourage faster upgrades, she adds.
“Although GenAI smartphones are relatively new in the market, premium flagships will continue to adopt GenAI features to help separate them from the pack,” says Anthony Scarsella, research director with IDC's Worldwide Quarterly Mobile Phone Tracker.
“IDC expects a robust 344% growth for GenAI smartphones, capturing 18% share of the total market by the end of 2024, as most flagships will adopt some on-device GenAI features.
“However, GenAI-capable devices won't come cheap initially, as the average selling price for these GenAI smartphones will be more than double the cost of non-GenAI capable devices, further driving the premiumisation trend.”
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