2015 is the year of the "re-enterprisation of IT", said Arun Babu, TMT consulting leader, unveiling the Deloitte Technology, Media and Telecommunications (TMT) predictions in Johannesburg today.
Over the last decade, consumers have led the way in taking up new technologies such as smartphones and tablets, contrasting strongly with the period from the 1950s to the early 2000s in which the consumer took years to catch up with enterprises in their use of technologies such as calculators and computers, he explained.
From this year, the industry will see enterprises once again driving adoption of new technologies such as drones and 3D printing, Babu said.
Many emerging technologies, particularly the Internet of things, offer more benefit to enterprises than they do to consumers, noted Mark Casey, TMT Africa leader. While connected devices offer companies and service providers useful consumer data, many such devices offer little or negligible reward to the consumer, he continued.
"We're a bit sceptical of media coverage promoting smart home devices you can control with your phone," he said, as controlling home appliances either way involves "a button you push with your finger" and hence it is doubtful whether the slight extra convenience to the consumer will be worth the considerable extra cost.
Notable predictions for 2015 include:
Technology
One billion Internet of things devices will be shipped in 2015, up 60% from 2014, leading to 2.8 billion installed devices. Yet, 60% of these devices will be bought, paid for and used by enterprises, not consumers.
Contactless mobile payments finally gain momentum: 2015 will be the first year in which the multiple prerequisites for mainstream adoption will be satisfied. By the end of the year, 5% of the base of 600 million to 650 million near-field communication-equipped smartphones will be used at least once a month, up from 0.5% in mid-2014.
Click-and-collect boom: The number of click-and-collect locations, where consumers can pick up goods they bought online, will reach 500 000 in Europe. SA is likely to mirror this trend, said Casey, as this solution eliminates the logistical errors inherent in delivering goods to customers' doors. "It's all about convenience," he noted.
3D printing still a revolution: "It's just not the revolution we thought was going to happen," said Babu. In 2015, nearly 220 000 3D printers will be sold worldwide, but enterprises, not consumers, will be behind this growth. Commercial enterprises will account for 95% of all printed objects and 90% of the value of all 3D printers. As yet, the technology is still too expensive to realise early visions of "a factory in every home," said Babu.
One million non-military drones will have been bought, after sales of about 300 000 units this year.
Nanosats take off: By the end of 2015, over 500 nanosatellites will be in orbit, showing a 200% increase from the beginning of 2014. Lighter, cheaper, easier to build and easier to launch than commercial satellites, they will enable an increase in scientific experimentation, says Babu.
Media
Millennials spend a lot on media: "The generation that won't spend," so often accused of defaulting to piracy, contributes significantly to media revenue. North American millennials spend a total of $62 billion, or $750 each, per year on media content, including pay-TV, music, computer games, movies, books, video-on-demand, live sports, and news.
Books are not out of fashion yet: Millennials' aversion to other forms of physical media, such as CDs, DVDs and newspapers, does not extend to books. Over 80% of book sales worldwide will be brought in by printed books, which many millennials prefer for perks like their smell and physical appearance as a kind of statement object.
Short form video a future, but not the future: While short-form video (under 20 minutes) continues to take off and diversify, it will represent less than 3% of all video watched on all screens in 2015, and generate $5 billion compared with long-form videos' $400 billion in revenue.
Telecommunications
One billion smartphone upgrades will be purchased in 2015, generating more than $300 billion in revenue and outstripping sales of laptops, tablets, TV sets and gaming consoles combined.
Better batteries but no breakthrough: Lithium-ion smartphone batteries will have no more than 5% better charge (mAh), although owners of new smartphones may experience a 15% increase in battery life due to more efficient components, better software, and bigger phones enabling larger batteries.
The broadband gap widens: While the number of broadband-connected homes in the world will rise 2% to 715 million and average broadband speed will increase by 15% to 25%, there will be significant variations in the broadband speed per household. The top echelon of homes is likely to attain at least 10 times the average speed of those at the bottom end of the pecking order.
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