2012: The light bulb year for Kenya

There is a common belief in Kenya that how we start the year is an indication of how the rest of the year will pan out. Judging by the flurry of activity over the last three weeks, it is safe to assume some incidences will shape the ICT sector in the country.

For most Kenyans, the penny takes a while to drop. But when it does, it goes viral.

Ken Macharia, ITWeb's Kenyan correspondent

We have already hit international headlines with the Google vs Mocality debacle, which saw the Internet giant unethically acquire Mocality's data to fish business from the startup; and more than 100 government sites have been attacked by an amateur hacker.

For most Kenyans, the penny takes a while to drop. But when it does, it goes viral. This year, I predict, will be the light bulb year for the country. Most of the trends were already happening in 2011. We just 'discovered' them in 2012. So what else will we 'discover' this year?

The older folk will realise why their kids spend so much time on their phones. It will also hit them that if they want to reach 60% of the Kenyan population, social media is where to find them. This year is going to be a year of epiphany for a generation that has been trying to get their minds around social media.

With campaigns for the next general elections already in high gear, politicians will find traditional campaigning methods ineffective compared to the use of social media. Companies will find it increasingly hard to get away with poor services as word of their ineptitude spreads like wild bush fires.

A new Twitter hashtag has emerged in the last two weeks. #Twitterbigstick has become Kenya's virtual suggestion box, only this time, organisations are responding to customer complaints.

Managers will see the futility of banning social sites in the office, and instead see the opportunity of using social media to gain valuable feedback and audience reach. The demand for social media/online content managers is on the rise, and this trend will gain traction in 2012.

Telcos are falling over themselves to offer the best mobile data packages. Not surprising. The Communications Commission of Kenya (CCK) reported that 99% of new Internet connections in the last quarter of 2011 were mobile subscriptions.

Meanwhile, revenue from voice and SMS has more or less remained unchanged, forcing telecos to consider other revenue streams. Everything is on the table at the moment, including acquisitions, partnerships and the launch of new products.

This year will see mobile operators limit their ventures and focus on their strengths with the aim of becoming dominant in that segment. The challenge will be finding that niche. We are likely to see a truly seamless integration of the four mobile payment systems, allowing subscribers to send and receive money across mobile networks.

It's not about how cool an app is, or how many lines you used to code it. Users want to know how it can help them, and how many people can use the app. In 2012, developers will start building apps for everyday use.

We hope this is the year developers rise to the occasion and deliver real solutions. Mobile apps will take off in 2012. We have already seen signs of locally developed apps that have the potential to make it big this year. The first local app store, launched late last year by Virtual City, will be the litmus test for mobile apps. We hope seeds planted in incubation centres and developer competitions will bear fruit in 2012.

If recent events are anything to go by, cyber security will take centre stage in 2012. Companies and the government will be on high alert, which means we will have to let go of some of our liberties. The government has already indicated it will be monitoring Web sites, social media, phone calls and SMSes to guard against hate speech during the campaign period.

Security concerns may mean cloud computing take-off and adoption will be delayed.

We are likely to see subdued activity in the vendor space, as the government focuses on the upcoming elections and corporations adopt a wait-and-see approach. One exception will be the manufacturers of affordable smartphones and tablets. Huawei sold 130 000 smartphone units last year that cost around $100 each.

Other hardware vendors will, however, reap rewards from investments made in other countries in the region. More Kenyan ICT companies will venture into neighbouring countries, especially Rwanda, Uganda and Ethiopia, in 2012.

Overall, we hope 2012 will generate more light than heat in the ICT industry.