South Africa will have more wireless Internet connections than fixed-line connections by the end of this year, according to specialist technology researchers BMI-TechKnowledge (BMI-T).
Speaking at BMI-T's monthly briefing session in Sandton, Johannesburg, research director Brian Neilson told the audience: "By the end of the year, we may well see more connections for wireless services like 3G than the number of ADSL connections in the country."
The main reasons for wireless "overtaking wireline", he says, is the fact that corporates choosing the wireless Internet option issue multiple employees with individual data cards (instead of sharing the same cable connection), and that ADSL is slower to install.
The cost of wireless broadband services, especially the premium HSDPA offerings from the mobile operators (offering realistic downlink speeds of about 1Mbps) has dropped significantly in the past year, as have Telkom's broadband prices.
"It's an X-curve, the faster the prices go down the faster subscribers go up. Recently, broadband prices have been in freefall - faster than we predicted," says Neilson.
Choices, choices
SA has a number of wireless Internet options, ranging from the 3G and HSDPA offerings from MTN and Vodacom, and the non-standardised iBurst from WBS, and MyWireless from Sentech, to the first standardised WiMax offering from Telkom.
Neotel MD Ajay Pandey plans to offer CDMA services, as well as other access technologies, adding further wireless options to the consumer. Many municipalities are developing their own wireless networks to connect their citizens.
Historically, Telkom has been the sole player in the fixed-line broadband space, but both Vodacom and MTN have outlined intentions to move into this space.
"Telkom is not the only operator which could provide ADSL," said MTN NS boss Mike Brierly at a separate event.
VOIP and SMP
BMI-T's Neilson touched on another technology to potentially dramatically change the telecoms landscape. He says tentative estimates indicate VOIP revenue could rise from about R100 million this year to R300 million in 2008 - and hit R700 million by 2010.
However, he cautions that research currently underway by BMI-T will provide clarity on these figures.
He added that telecoms regulator ICASA's current analysis to establish "significant market power" (SMP) could have a major impact on "just about everything in the telecoms market".
"If ICASA deems a player to have SMP, then they can force them to let others use their infrastructure."
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