While SA’s significantly reduced load-shedding has seen declining demand for solar power, several factors − including higher electricity tariffs and the declining price of rooftop solar panels − will see the solar industry continue to grow steadily.
This is one of the key findings of an energy report released by solar power provider GoSolr, at an event held this week in Johannesburg.
It shows that while rooftop solar installations are witnessing slowing demand from South Africans compared to 2023’s unprecedented solar boom, the industry continues to witness steady demand from businesses and homeowners this year.
In the period leading up to and post the national elections, Eskom has not implemented load-shedding for 104 consecutive days, due to sufficient generation capacity to supply electricity to the country.
However, the solar industry continues to see healthy growth, with local homes and businesses having installed about 240MW of rooftop solar capacity in the first quarter of 2024 and 350MW in the second quarter so far, notes the report.
This brings the year’s total, so far, to about 590MW. In 2023, about 2 630MW of rooftop solar was installed.
“South Africans are feeling the pinch of rising electricity prices. While the growth of adoption of renewable energy was initially driven by load-shedding, we are now seeing the focus is shifting towards cost savings as a driver − as solar and other renewable energy options become cheaper,” explained GoSolr co-founder and CEO Andrew Middleton.
While last year’s growth of solar power in SA was largely motivated by the country's energy deficit and poor performance of Eskom’s power stations, now that some of that pressure has been removed, new drivers are emerging, he added.
“We’ve now moved into phase two of the clean energy boom, which is underpinned by cost considerations. We believe the third phase will be where consumers insist on the power that causes the least damage to our planet.
“While we work through this second phase, it’s imperative that reliable and clean energy becomes more accessible to all consumers, including lower-income ones that have previously been unable to make these choices. With the cost of solar installations coming down, this is starting to become achievable, and our figures show our customers are seeing significant costs savings compared to when they were 100% on the grid.”
According to the report, private renewable energy generation is helping to reduce the demand for power. In SA, the demand for electricity production, transmission and distribution − otherwise referred to as Eskom’s unbundling − is giving other electricity producers the leeway they need to enter the market.
Total power capacity will increase from 52 000MW in 2019, to over 100 000MW in 2035, driven by 38 044MW in renewables, it says.
Coal capacity, meanwhile, is expected to drop from 37 149MW in 2019 to 33 364MW in 2030.
"By the second quarter of this year, the country’s electricity availability factor stood at 66%, 15% higher than at the beginning of 2024, largely due to contributions from alternative energy providers."
However, this doesn’t mean that heftier electricity price tags will be kept at bay − decreasing consumption, coupled with increasing costs and debt, keep pushing Eskom to advocate for higher tariffs, with a potential spike of up to 44% expected in 2025, the report forecasts.
As a result, consumers are increasingly looking for alternative energy supply, rather than relying on the grid.
“Effective market signals include scrapping the 10% import tax on solar panels and implementing incentives that encourage households to discharge batteries during peak hours and at critical times of the year when the system needs them most,” concludes Middleton.
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