Worldwide smartphone shipments are expected to rebound in 2017, with shipments forecast to reach 1.53 billion units this year and grow to 1.77 billion in 2021.
This is according to research from the International Data Corporation (IDC) Worldwide Quarterly Mobile Phone Tracker, which found coming off the smartphone market's lowest year-over-year growth of 2.5% in 2016; smartphone growth is expected to remain in the low single digits this year. Shipment volumes forecasted to grow at 4.2% in 2017 and 4.4% in 2018 with a compound annual growth rate of 3.8% over the 2016-2021 forecast, reveals IDC.
From a platform perspective, IDC says it doesn't expect much change throughout the forecast with Android accounting for roughly 85% of smartphone shipments and Apple making up the rest. Although Android growth will gradually decline, the research firm says it does not yet see a point where shipments will contract year over year, given the demand for new features such as augmented and virtual reality.
For iOS, 2016 was the first time Apple experienced a year-over-year decline in shipments with iPhone volumes falling 7%. IDC expects a strong rebound in iPhone volumes in 2017 following the launch of its next set of devices with many rumoured technical changes as well as a strong push for the 10th anniversary.
"We continue to get questions about longer smartphone life cycles given the number of markets with high penetration levels, but so far we are not seeing any trend in this direction," says Ryan Reith, program vice president with IDC's Worldwide Quarterly Mobile Device Trackers. "When you break down the market you have many different trends occurring. In some low-cost markets like China, we are beginning to see users gradually buying up to a more premium device."
Anthony Scarsella, research manager with IDC's Worldwide Quarterly Mobile Phone Tracker, says phablets will undoubtedly be the main force driving the smartphones market forward. "Despite the moderate 2.5% growth in 2016, phablets displayed 49% year-over-year growth as consumers continue to flock to big-screened devices in both emerging and developed markets. Total phablet shipments worldwide are expected to reach just under 680 million units by 2021, resulting in a compound annual growth rate of 9.2% for 2016 - 2021. In comparison, regular smartphones will grow at a rate of just 1.1% during the same period, proving perhaps that bigger may be better or at least more popular when it comes to smartphones."
According to research firm Gartner, worldwide combined shipments of mobile phones, PCs, tablets, and ultramobiles are projected to remain flat in 2017, with shipments for these devices projected to total 2.3 billion this year, the same as 2016 estimates.
"The global devices market is stagnating. Mobile phone shipments are only growing in emerging Asia/Pacific markets, and the PC market is just reaching the bottom of its decline," said Ranjit Atwal, research director at Gartner. "As well as declining shipment growth for traditional devices, average selling prices are also beginning to stagnate because of market saturation and a slower rate of innovation. Consumers have fewer reasons to upgrade or buy traditional devices.
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