For the first time in five years, the growth of Internet usage in South Africa is slowing down significantly, according to a new research report.
The 3rd edition of the South African Internet Services Industry Survey, released today (23 June), reveals that growth in the number of South African Internet subscribers fell below the 100% mark last year, to 86%. This means that, for the first time since the Internet became commercially available in 1994, the user base did not double over the year.
Media Africa, the country`s leading specialist Internet researchers, conducts the survey of Internet usage in South Africa every six months.
The 3rd South African Internet Services Industry Survey 1999, which has been endorsed by the Internet Service Providers` Association (ISPA), estimates a total number of Internet users in South Africa at the end of December 1998 as 1 266 000. These include dial-up subscribers, corporate users getting access at work, and academic users getting access at learning institutions.
Media Africa forecasts this overall total to grow to around 1,8-million by the end of 1999 - bringing growth of the total market this year down to 50%.
"While we are seeing dramatic user numbers, the reality is that this year will see the lowest proportionate growth in the Internet user base yet," says Media Africa managing director Arthur Goldstuck. "Of course, that doe s not take away from the sheer number of new users coming online this year: in the dial-up market alone, we can expect at least 220 000 new subscribers. It is this new market that all the ISPs are fighting for in their huge marketing campaigns."
The number of dial-up subscribers in South Africa at the end of 1998 was measured at 366 235, almost precisely the number forecast by Media Africa earlier in the year. The forecast for dial-up subscribers at the end of 19 99 is a little more than 558 000.
Once again, in the fifth year of the South African ISP industry`s existence, at least 20 ISPs continue to command a strong customer base - each with more than 1000 dial-up subscribers. This reaffirms the researchers` rejection of the belief that only the large providers could build up a substantial client base and survive longer than a year or two
In 1997 Media Africa`s work in establishing the size of the market firmly established the Internet as an important new medium in South Africa, debunking the widespread belief that enthusiasm for the Internet was based on industry hype.
Subsequently, the rapid growth over the period between October 1997 and December 1998, fuelled by the marketing campaigns of several major newcomers to the Internet, resulted in the Internet reaching a critical mass of users in South Africa.
As anticipated in the previous edition of this survey, the growth has convinced an increasing number of conventional businesses of the value of designing services and products geared towards the South African Internet user, or using the Internet as a communications medium to reach specific target markets.
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