Predictions

What to expect in 2006

The recently licensed SNO will most likely become operational towards the middle of 2006, but consumers will have to wait until 2007 before they will see the SNO compete effectively against Telkom in the fixed line arena. Their wholesale strategy will bring down the cost of bandwidth, but it will take some time before these savings filter down to the retail market. 

2006 will see the introduction of High-Speed Downlink Packet Access (HSDPA). With the introduction of this new 2Mbps service both Vodacom and MTN will increase their data-card population significantly. This will result in a lowering of data prices and an increase in the average revenue per user (ARPU).

As with 3G, Vodacom will again be the leader here and we can expect MTN to follow a few months after Vodacom. Vodacom will gain an even larger share of the wireless broadband market because of their aggressive approach. 

WBS will follow suit with a 2Mbps product, but the mobile operator`s deep pockets and aggressive marketing will ensure that their growth is significantly faster than that of iBurst. We will see a lowering in the cost of bandwidth in the mobile broadband environment, which will entice customers to seriously consider these services as an alternative to ADSL. 

Telkom will however make certain that their offerings remain competitively priced in the local context to ensure that they do not lose market share in the broadband arena. 

Tshwane will be the leader, with Johannesburg and Cape Town not far behind

Rudolph Muller, founder, MyADSL

WiMax will become commercially available internationally and in SA. This will not have a massive effect on broadband penetration in 2006, but will give users currently outside the ADSL footprint a taste of true broadband.

For the extensive use of WiMax and specifically mobile WiMax, consumers will in all likelihood have to wait for 2007. 

To curb the high cost of telecoms, Municipalities will start to aggressively roll out their own networks. Tshwane will be the leader, with Johannesburg and Cape Town not far behind.

Internationally ADSL2+ will become commonplace, with DSL offerings of 20Mbps becoming widespread in most developed countries.  Japan, South Korea, Hong Kong and other Asian countries will continue to dominate the broadband scene, and fiber to home will become increasingly available in these areas.

On the South African ADSL front we will see the launch of IP-TV and possibly a 2Mbps ADSL offering, but nothing more exciting will emerge. 

The number of ADSL users will grow to around 250 000, with a total broadband user base of around 350 000. This will result in an increase in online readership and an increase in online advertising. Awareness of the broadband environment and the values and advantages of having broadband will also increase.

* Rudolph Muller is founder of MyADSL Web site and lecturer at the Department of Business Information Technology of the University of Johannesburg.