The mobile ecosystem continues its upward trajectory, with projections that it will contribute $11 trillion, or 8.4% of global gross domestic product (GDP), in economic value by 2030.
The ecosystem currently generates around 5.8% of global GDP, which is equivalent to $6.5 trillion of economic value added.
This is one of the highlights from the GSM Association’s (GSMA’s) recently released Mobile Economy Report 2025, which was authored by GSMA Intelligence, its research arm.
The GSMA categorises the mobile ecosystem into three areas: mobile operators, infrastructure and equipment, and content and services.
Mobile’s contribution to the global economy is being driven by several factors, it states. These include countries around the world increasingly benefiting from improvements in productivity and efficiency brought about by the increased take-up of mobile services and digital technologies, including 5G, internet of things (IOT) and artificial intelligence (AI).
“Mobile technologies and the ensuing digital transformation will boost the economy by nearly $11 trillion in 2030. Much of this will materialise in regions with a higher integration of digital technologies in enterprises, including North America, Europe and Asia Pacific.
“Towards the end of the decade, low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) are expected to realise an increasing proportion of economic benefits, as mobile technology achieves greater scale and widespread adoption. However, current adoption of more advanced technologies in LMICs is lagging adoption in high-income countries.
“Mobile technologies are expected to benefit all sectors of the global economy, although some industries will benefit more than others due to their ability to incorporate the latest wave of digital technologies, including 5G, IOT and AI.”
The report shows that 58% of the world’s population used mobile internet at the end of 2024, representing 4.7 billion users – an increase of 2.2 billion since 2015.
This number is expected to rise to 5.5 billion users (64%) by 2030, it notes. However, the GSMA points out that the growth rate at which people are adopting mobile internet has slowed in recent years.
“Around 110 million people started using mobile internet in 2024, which is slightly down on the 2022 and 2023 figures, and significantly lower than growth in 2015 to 2021, when more than 200 million people became connected each year.
“Of the 3.4 billion people who remain unconnected to mobile internet, almost 90% live in an area already covered by mobile broadband, but do not use mobile internet. With mobile internet adoption outpacing network expansion, this usage gap has continued to shrink, standing at 38% by the end of 2024.
“However, the usage gap remains nine times the size of the coverage gap, and is over 45% in Asia Pacific, the Middle East, North Africa and Sub-Saharan Africa.”
According to the report, by 2028, 5G adoption will surpass that of 4G adoption. This, as 5G connections worldwide surpassed two billion at the end of 2024, with expectations that 5G will account for over half (57%) of total mobile connections in 2030.
“The share of mobile connections on 4G is beginning to wane as 5G commercialisation gathers pace. As of December 2024, 305 operators in 121 markets had launched commercial 5G mobile services. More countries are expected to follow, with 80 operators from 60 markets announcing launch plans for mobile 5G services in the coming years.
“With 2G and 3G networks accounting for less than 20% of mobile connections worldwide, legacy networks are being phased out in many regions. By the end of November 2024, a total of 152 networks had been shut down and another 131 networks were planned to be shut down by 2030.
“Asia Pacific and Europe lead the way, accounting for around 70% of network sunsets to date. Network sunsets enable more efficient spectrum use, while also reducing energy consumption.”
Amid challenging economic times and 5G-capable smartphones and devices still being expensive for many South Africans, the country’s telcos continue to roll out 5G.
Mobile network operators MTN, Telkom and Vodacom, for example, offer 5G services in SA, albeit still mostly concentrated in the big cities. Most recently, Cell C – SA’s fourth-biggest mobile operator – said it is looking to deploy 5G connectivity in the “next couple of months”.
Mobile analytics company Opensignal has revealed SA leads the way when it comes to 5G network deployment in Sub-Saharan Africa, with expectations that more 5G networks will come online across the African continent this year.
According to the GSMA report, the number of 5G connections worldwide surpassed two billion at the end of 2024, accounting for more than half of mobile connections in North America, Greater China and developed Asia Pacific.
“Growth will intensify in the second half of this decade, with 5G adoption set to exceed 80% in leading 5G markets by 2030.
“It is still early days for 5G adoption in most emerging 5G markets. However, 5G adoption will gather pace over the next few years with the arrival of cheaper 5G smartphones and new spectrum assignments.
“As a result, 5G is expected to account for almost 40% of total mobile connections in LMICs (excluding China) by the end of the decade, equivalent to 2.3 billion connections.”
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