Mobile mania

Whether you call it mobile-commerce (m-commerce) or wireless Internet, it`s touted as the next big wave, and you have to admit it captures the imagination. So much so that I rushed out early and acquired a new cellphone with Wireless Application Protocol (WAP) capabilities, and have spent many a half-hour playing with it - apart from playing Snake II - since the new services were launched earlier this year.

But where do you stand on the issue of just how big it will be, and how fast it will grow?

In my opinion, consumers are going to like and adopt [WAP], provided it works, and works quickly and reliably enough.

Brian Neilson, ITWeb columnist

Predictions range wildly. At one end of the scale, Matti Alihuhta, president of Nokia, expects the number of PC Internet users to be outstripped by mobile devices - including cellphones - by 2003. At the other end we have Andrew Seybold, quoted in Red Herring as saying that "it`s yet another feeding frenzy", and totally over-hyped. Analysts cite all the device limitations and network speed constraints among a list of other issues.

Based on my own first-hand experimentation, I must agree. There are constraints, and the connection is currently unreliable. But I still find it incredibly cool, and this consumer, for one, is sold on WAP - notwithstanding all the present limitations.

Many of these shortcomings are temporary of course. This makes it interesting for local researchers to build their forecasts of how fast new products and services, including faster networks, will roll-out. Coupled with this, we have the question of how these services will be priced - again a factor well within the suppliers` span of control. This leaves little room for demand-based factors. In my opinion, consumers are going to like and adopt it, provided it works, and works quickly and reliably enough. And of course we need to have the right applications.

We`re looking at anytime, anywhere access to mobile relevant content and e-killer applications such as messaging and banking. Indeed, the wireless Web is not only about news, sports and weather, but more about personalised Internet content and messaging. It will also lend itself particularly well to some e-commerce applications like ticketing, along with any other areas where there is a pre-existing online relationship and a quick decision is needed, like a response to a special offer.

Admittedly, the available content and services for these devices is sparse right now. But we`re seeing an increasing number of wireless service providers gearing up to deliver dynamic, real-time, personalised Internet content to mobile users through a variety of mobile devices, including a new generation of smart phones with integrated Internet micro-browsers.

M-commerce will have you buying movie tickets while you`re stuck in traffic. Parking meters and vending machines will accept smart cards, which you`ll recharge through your cellphone. In fact, your cellular phone bill will read like your credit card statement - which it just might replace.

We`ve seen several pilot projects involving owners of WAP-enabled phones get under way locally, and some have provided related PC-browser Web sites that allow the easy creation of a personalised WAP portal. Some actually double as an Internet service provider, while others require you to have an existing dial-up account. Applications available locally include news and games, with pilot e-commerce applications for flowers and reservations. Two of the major banks are getting ready to put their Internet banking services online.

Of course, local users can also browse the growing base of international sites - although many of these are in Europe and the content is not always relevant to locals, or even in English. BBC and CNN are two obvious exceptions, while giant online bookseller Amazon.com has linked up with Nokia to offer an m-commerce service to customers equipped with WAP handsets. Customers will be able to set up their account, browse, search and shop from wherever they are, simply by using their mobile phone.

IDC predicts that by 2003 there will be in the region of 500 million mobile phone subscribers worldwide. Of these, 106 million will be able to receive news updates or e-mail on their wireless devices, up from just over 22 million in 1998. The number of subscribers who will be able to both send and receive information over the Internet is expected to increase to 61.5 million, while 40 million will actually be able to browse the Web from the palm of their hand.

For once, the US is lagging in the technology stakes, with leading European countries way ahead in cellular telephony adoption. The big surge in the adoption of wireless devices supporting the WAP protocol for reformatting Web pages to fit tiny screens - has been in Europe, where countries like Finland and Germany are setting the trends for the rest of the world to follow.

Locally, mobile Internet access looks set for rapid take-off too, after initially lagging the leading adopter countries by up to three years. The overall cellular phone base is growing by leaps and bounds, and although very few are connected to the Internet at this stage, there were about 6 500 devices - mainly PalmOS and Windows CE - making up the bulk of connected smart handheld devices (SHHDs) by the end of 1999. BMI-T expects more than a million Internet-connected SHHDs to be active in SA by 2004 - including PDA types and smart cellular phones.

There will also be an emerging generation of notepad and tablet-size devices by then - and let`s not forget that notebook PCs are mobile devices in themselves, and many are hooking up to the Internet. A growing proportion will use cellular hook-ups in future, and Nokia expects cellular connectivity to become built-in, and ultimately, standard functionality.

Will everyone rush out and buy a WAP phone, or hook up their personal communicator to the Internet? Not straight away. But SA is about two years behind the US in respect of the uptake of alternative Internet access devices in general, and we have seen a lift-off, albeit nascent, in the past 12 months.

My money is on the million-SHHDs-by-2004 prediction. It is certainly doable, and not overly optimistic. And we might still be surprised, yet again, at our collective ability to underestimate the acceleration of the cellular phone market!

I am keen to see this column move away from being a one-way communication towards a valuable forum for informed debate. Please join the rush and e-mail me (brian@bmi-t.co.za) if you have some wisdom to add!