Mobile broadband will be 'life-changing`

Johannesburg, 08 Oct 2004

Technology is developing at such a rate that most people cannot even comprehend how much it will change our lives in the next five to 10 years.

This is the view of telecoms analyst Andre Wills, of Africa Analysis, who says people already have an almost symbiotic relationship with their cellphones, with most people feeling something is missing if they don`t have their phone at hand.

"The coming of the mobile broadband era within the next few years will change things in ways people cannot even begin to comprehend," he says.

"Just look how things have changed from a communication, business, legal and social perspective since the advent of the 'cellphone era`, about 10 years ago."

Technology shift

Wills believes third generation (3G) technology will bring about a technology shift that will affect people in undreamt of ways, much the same as cellphones originally did.

"As we develop new applications to run on top of broadband, so we will reach a point where we will always be in contact with something out there, whether it is other people, the Internet or other devices," says Wills.

"I foresee services such as 24-hour health monitoring being provided by entrepreneurial companies. This would entail a person being monitored by minute sensors and being notified immediately by phone or SMS if there are any changes to your health."

He says the biggest challenge for broadband technology will be to bring broad-based services to rural areas.

"The need to bridge the digital divide could result in the development of a niche market for specific technology solutions for rural regions, but there will be many challenges," he says.

"Because the dynamics of the market are so different to urban areas - and since it is the urban areas where the most money is generated - the divide could likely grow much greater, as not as much energy will be sunk into rural applications."

Wills says that as broadband takes hold, more and more of the services we use in everyday life will move online, whether these services involve people-to-people, people-to-machine or machine-to-machine communication.

"Once we reach the stage of being connected anywhere at any time through any device, people will begin to take data for granted.

"In fact, I think that within the next 10 years we will see people being bombarded with so much information - thanks to full voice and data connectivity - that we will likely have to have special filters designed to control the flow of information.`

Cash-flush operators

Wills claims that another big question for the future is what will the mobile operators do with the 'free` cash they generate?

"Since their CAPEX will come down dramatically - their networks, despite upgrade costs, have already been built - and their OPEX will always be carefully controlled, they will begin generating lots of extra money, but what will they invest it in?

"I believe the mobile operators will begin looking at providing related services over a mobile digital platform, such as banking, similarly to what stores like Pick 'n Pay already do," he says.

"The operators already have all the key ingredients, such as regular contact with customers and all their billing details close to hand, so they can thus converge this knowledge and begin providing an expanded service to their clients.

"There is, after all, only so much voice or data that an operator can provide, which makes the move into related services a logical one, since people already use their mobile phones on a daily basis - in fact, most of us have it on permanently, except perhaps when we`re asleep."

He says there is no other service that people use with as much regularity or intimacy, but once people are saturated with voice and data, the operators will have to look elsewhere to grow their market share.

"By leveraging their knowledge of their customer base to increase the range of electronic services to include such options as infotainment and other cyber services, the operators will be able to grow their markets.

"I believe it will only be a matter of time before we reach a point where the Internet will come to us, direct to our phones, rather than us going to a PC to log on to it."