In an unlikely outcome to a David and Goliath technology battle, a free computer operating system called Linux has the power to shake up Microsoft`s global dominance, software experts at a Montreal trade show predicted on Tuesday.
Technology gurus suggest the open source system will change the way the world computes -- now dominated by the proprietary Windows operating system sold by Microsoft.
They disagree, however, on where Linux will stage its victory.
Big business predicts a strong showing in the rich North American market, while other market watchers suggest the system will find its home in developing countries.
Linux, developed in 1991 by a Finnish university student, already has an estimated 20 million users. It is a "kernel" of computer code that is continually being modified via the Internet by an international community of developers.
Executives from Ottawa-based Corel and Research Triangle Park, N.C.-based Red Hat said at the Linux Expo 2000 on Tuesday that Linux will build strong business for their companies.
Red Hat, the sector`s best-known Linux distributor, is predicting profitability for the fourth quarter of 2002.
Ottawa based Corel, which is developing Linux versions of its graphics and word processing software lines, and has also released a Linux system from desktop computers, is not yet predicting a profit.
Corel chief executive Michael Cowpland told reporters on Tuesday that Linux demand is experiencing "a big ramp up."
The company has six "big opportunities" to strike licensing deals with equipment manufacturers that would install Corel`s Linux software or desktop system, he said.
The head of a Linux trade association that represents about 100 companies, suggests the technology will more likely be embraced by developing economies, noting that nearly 5.7 billion people in the world are not yet using computers.
"Because Linux is a low-cost alternative to other operating systems, I think that there will be a lot of growth in what I call the emerging countries," said Jon Hall, executive director of Linux International.
"I think that Linux has a great marketplace in a lot of these countries where they are certainly not missing the education -- the people are fairly well educated and they are very ambitious, but they need capital to be able to get going."
A Linux breakthrough in the rich North American market faces key hurdles, he said, notably the entrenchment of Windows technology in business and schools.
Red Hat president Robert Young disagrees, pointing out that the benefits to consumers will help push Linux to a bottom-line profit.
"It is not better, faster, or cheaper technology. The world is full of great technologies that are gathering dust on some shelf somewhere," Young said in his speech.
"What is driving this phenomenon is not the Linux kernel...it is not any of the tools, it is the open source movement itself. Because what open source does for you is it empowers the user."
A corporate forecast of the Linux market evolution may not mesh with the views of developers. But the two groups do find common ground in praising the promise offered by the technology`s freedom.
"This will allow a redistribution of the computer wealth," Hall said. "I hope that Linux will help me find the next Albert Einstein of computer science."
Young said Linux represents an overthrow of a "feudal" technology, in which restrictive software licenses prohibit any adjustments or improvements.
"If you can figure out how to fix the bug in the software that`s causing your system to crash, or if you can add the feature that your customers really need, you literally can get thrown into jail," he said.
"It ends up looking like a feudal system - it is the way of the middle ages -- the (way) old kings of dukes maintained control over their society is they would not tell anyone what the laws where."
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