Global shipments of personal computing devices (PCDs), comprised of traditional PCs and tablets, are forecast to decline from a total of 435.0 million units in 2016 to 405.2 million units at the end of the forecast period in 2021.
This is according to the Worldwide Quarterly Personal Computing Device Tracker from International Data Corporation (IDC). The research found shipments of PCDs (a combination of desktop, notebook, tablets and workstations) for the forecast period represent a five-year compound annual growth rate of -1.4%, with the largest reductions coming from the tablet product categories.
The report notes desktop volumes will continue to decline as consumers move to other platforms, while notebook volume will grow modestly, boosted by the commercial market and a steady move toward ultra slim and convertible notebooks.
IDC further reveals as a collective group of device categories, the PCD market is expected to return to growth in 2019, albeit marginally small. Led by a modest recovery in Europe, Middle East and Africa and Asia/Pacific in 1Q 2017, the traditional PC market registered its first quarter of positive year-on-year growth since Q1 2012.
"The steady refinement of slim and convertible designs, as well as rising commercial spending are helping stabilise overall traditional PC shipments," says Loren Loverde, vice president with IDC's Worldwide Personal Computing Device Tracker and Tracker Forecasting. "Although traditional PC shipments will decline slightly by the end of the forecast, rising replacements and steadier growth in emerging regions will keep commercial growth in positive territory and sustain total annual shipments above 252 million throughout the forecast."
John Geypen, country category manager, computing, at manufacturer of personal computers HP, says 2016 was an "annus horribilis" for the computing industry in SA, with the combined tablet and traditional PC market declining by 15.6% compared to 2015.
"The biggest contributor to the decline was the tablet market, down by 22.1%, whereas the PC market only declined a moderate 9%.The positive news is that for 1Q 2017, while the tablet market continues to shrink, we have seen a remarkable recovery in the PC market where for the first time in two years we have seen both quarter-on-quarter and also year-on-year growth," he explains.
HP says the key challenges facing the IT sector are the same challenges most industries are facing today and these are primarily: political instability and uncertainty, concerns about the economy following the recent downgrades and its impact on the volatility of the rate of exchange.
"The exchange rate is a key factor if I go back a few years ago we were able to retail an entry level notebook at R 2 999, which at today's rate is no longer achievable. This means PCs are far less accessible than they were a few years ago. Desktops are experiencing a continuous steady decline, especially in the consumer space, while notebooks are driving the growth, especially new form factors like detachables and convertibles," Geypen points out.
Within the tablet category, IDC says the expectation remains that slate tablets will continue to decline at double-digit rates in 2017, while detachable tablets are expected to continue strong growth.
"Sales of detachable tablets haven't quite met our expectations and as a result we've reduced volume projections throughout the forecast period," says Ryan Reith, programme vice president with IDC's Worldwide Quarterly Mobile Device Trackers.
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