Dwindling digital dream

South Africa's long-awaited migration to digital television - and all the promises that come with it of more spectrum for broadband, jobs and a chance to revitalise a flagging electronics sector - has again been delayed for another six months.

While government is confident it can launch nationally in mid-2013, after a successful pilot towards last October, it has conceded that meeting the International Telecommunications Union's (ITU's) mid-2015 deadline is not feasible.

Themba Phiri, Department of Communications' (DOC's) deputy DG of ICT policy development, says: "It follows that if we launch in mid-2013, we don't have enough time to migrate because it only gives us two years and our projection is that we need over three years to migrate."

Migrating will free up space in the coveted 800MHz range, potentially allowing mobile operators to expand broadband coverage to rural areas as the spectrum makes rolling out services cheaper. The DoC wants to achieve universal broadband access by 2020.

However, this dividend - the freeing up of white spaces in the spectrum range - is on hold and unlikely to be released until some time after the country has migrated, which will be around mid-2016.

Government also wants digital TV to create much-needed jobs in an economy with an official unemployment rate of around 25.5%. Using migration as a catalyst, the state wants to spur on the development of a local set-top box manufacturing sector, creating jobs in the process.

However, the issue of who is responsible for conditional access on the boxes became a legal issue, and then a matter of negotiation, between the DoC and broadcasters in a bid to stave off further legal wrangling, delaying migration.

Free-to-air broadcaster e.tv took the department to court last year and won its bid to overturn communications minister Dina Pule's May decision that Sentech would handle set-top box controls, creating a dilemma for the DoC as it had not envisaged broadcasters handling controls.

It follows that if we launch in mid-2013, we don't have enough time to migrate because it only gives us two years and our projection is that we need over three years to migrate.

Government wants to use controls to stop grey imports and stolen boxes being used outside of SA. The DoC decided to appeal but has been talking to broadcasters in a bid to find middle ground, which could lead to a court battle being averted.

This delay meant the tender to make about five million subsidised decoders for the poor could not be awarded last October. Phiri hopes the parties will find a solution that will allow the decoder tender to be issued in March.

Meanwhile, the industry has spent years and millions of rands getting ready to benefit from making set-top boxes, not just for SA, but also for about 30 million homes in total in the Southern African Development Community (SADC), which has also adopted the European DVB-T2 standard.

In total, Africa represents a potential 100-million home market, most of which will need a box to convert digital signal for viewing on older sets. SA was in the pound seat to provide the bulk of these boxes, and the SADC was keen to use the country's expertise.

However, delay after delay has seen SA become a laggard, instead of a leader.

Altech UEC MD Rodger Warren says instead of SA leading the way in digital terrestrial television switch-over, it will have to look at how neighbouring countries have successfully implemented migration.

I believe we've lost this first mover advantage due to our own delays, and countries like Namibia, Nigeria and Zambia, among others, have taken the lead.

Most African states have adopted a standard, but few have migrated. According to information on the Digital Video Broadcasting Web site, Guinea-Bissau, Mauritius and Morocco are deploying DVB-T, while Kenya, Namibia, Nigeria and Zambia are rolling out T2.

Africa, as a sub-region of the ITU, is delayed, and might need to approach the ITU for a further extension, Phiri adds. In August, he said SA's current commitment, as a member of the ITU, was to complete its digital migration by 17 June 2015.

Meanwhile, taxpayers are still forking out for two signals, as Sentech has been offering dual-illumination since 2008. Warren explains that analogue and digital signals are being broadcast at the same time. "Dual illumination comes at a cost, estimated at many millions of rands, and with the digital signal in a test scenario, it means this cost is already being incurred."

Last year, based on SA meeting the ITU timeframe, Sentech said it needed an additional R213 million in 2014 and 2015 for dual illumination. It has been transmitting both signals since November 2008 and will continue to do so until switch-off and has, so far, covered around two-thirds of SA's population with DVB-T signal.

Warren says missing the 2015 deadline means current spectrum will not be protected by the ITU (which has agreements in place to prevent spectrum used here from interfering with that in neighbouring countries, for example) unless an agreement is reached otherwise. In addition, government is delaying the sales income potential of the freed-up spectrum for mobile network and pervasive broadband access, says UEC.

While the digital dividend should see telecoms companies gaining space in the 800MHz range, broadcasters also want access to this range, according to DoC technical advisor Roy Kruger. He says this issue hasn't been decided and when it's sorted out, free space is not likely to be allocated in SA until around 2016.

Thabo Lehlokoe, chairman of Seemahale Telecoms, says the 'hurry up and wait' has been "a very frustrating and costly exercise in more ways than one".

At one point, SA was seen by most SADC countries as a leader and an example, says Lehlokoe. "However, over the years, I believe we've lost this first mover advantage due to our own delays, and countries like Namibia, Nigeria and Zambia, among others, have taken the lead."

Lehlokoe says some companies that were hoping to benefit from government's plans to use migration to stimulate the sector have closed due to the delays. "In other cases, emerging set-top box manufacturing companies have had to find other sources of revenue to keep alive while this process is dragging on."

The gap created by delays was taken by foreign companies from countries like China and it will be difficult, if not impossible, to reverse this, says Lehlokoe. Communications minister Pule has said migration should facilitate the entry of about 1 000 SMEs into the electronics manufacturing sector and create a total of 23 500 jobs.

Lehlokoe adds that the delay raises the problem of possible interference in public broadcasts, as ITU protection will lapse. "It begs the question, what plans will be put in place to mitigate this possibility?"

Arthur Goldstuck, MD of World Wide Worx, is sceptical of a mid-year turn-on. He points out that the DoC has not moved with much speed since first agreeing to migrate in 2006, and several deadlines, including one set for 2011, have been missed.

Goldstuck points out that the DoC is attempting to do too much with digital TV, such as using it to stimulate a flagging electronics sector, instead of focusing on getting SA off analogue, freeing up valuable spectrum that can be used to roll out broadband in rural areas.

"The peripheral issues over digital terrestrial TV are really the tail wagging the dog, but in this case, the tail has become so heavy, the dog can't move, because too much is packed into the tail," says Goldstuck.

Goldstuck points out that the private sector - broadcasters, decoder manufacturers and others - is ready and waiting, but delays are coming from the state, holding up migration. "Ever since missing the original target date in 2011, targets have been replaced by guesses."