Over 6 000 electric vehicles (battery electric and plug-in hybrid EVs) will be shipped to Sub-Saharan Africa this year, up from 4 796 units in 2021.
This is according to the Forecast Analysis: Electric Vehicle Shipments, Worldwide report compiled by research firm Gartner. It provides insights into the global EV market, unpacking opportunities and lingering challenges faced by manufacturers in the market.
Despite a slowdown linked to the COVID-19 pandemic, the global EV sales market did fairly well in 2021, with 1.63 million shipments, compared to 1.24 million units shipped in 2020.
Providing global projections for 2022, Gartner forecasts six million EVs will be shipped this year, up from four million in 2021.
According to the report, Greater China (2.9 million), Western Europe (1.9 million) and the Middle East and North Africa region (137 000) are expected to lead in EV shipments in 2022.
Eastern Europe (75 000) and SSA (6 058) fall behind the pack, says the market analyst firm.
As governments across the world introduce new regulations and incentives to fuel EV sales, the automotive industry is also increasing investment in companies that provide charging infrastructure and vehicle battery technology to support and bolster the transition to EVs by consumers and businesses, notes Gartner.
“At COP26 in November 2021, the Zero Emission Vehicle Transition Council agreed that vehicle manufacturers will commit to selling only zero emission vehicles by 2040, and earlier in leading markets, putting pressure on the automotive sector to prepare for the decarbonisation in transportation. EVs are an important powertrain technology to help reduce CO2 emissions from the transportation sector,” says Jonathan Davenport, research director at Gartner.
“The ongoing shortage of chips will impact the production of EVs in 2022, and while shipments of vans and trucks are currently small, their shipments will grow rapidly as commercial owners see the financial and environmental benefit of electrifying their fleets.”
Gartner forecasts that electric sedans will represent 95% of total EV shipments in 2022 and the remainder will be split between buses, vans and heavy trucks.
In most of Africa, EVs remain rare. SA, which is estimated to have the largest EV market, had about 1 400 plug-in EVs by June 2021, according to a report by Autotrader.
This was around 0.014% of the total car fleet of 10 million vehicles sold globally at the time − an indication the country is severely lagging behind global counterparts.
According to the AutoTrader, EVs are more expensive in SA than other countries for a variety of reasons, including punitive import duties – levies cost as much as 25% in SA compared to 18% for internal combustion engine vehicles.
Other reasons include batteries being expensive to produce and a lack of consumer demand.
However, government incentives and advances in EV technology are some of the factors expected to contribute to reduced prices in future.
Pitfalls to mass deployment
Although sales of EVs improved last year, the market as a whole struggled to recover from the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic, with the ongoing chip shortages being among the key challenges that threaten EV production. The average EV has about 2 000 chips, roughly double the average number in a non-electric car.
The electronic component shortage, caused by disruptions in global supply chains, resulted in the world losing around 11.3 million units of production in 2021,accordingto AutoForecast Solutions.
To foster growth in EV adoption, automotive manufacturers will have to address other lingering factors, such as lowering the price of EVs and batteries, recycling EV batteries, offering a wider selection of vehicle models with more extensive driving range and improving charging infrastructure, notes Gartner.
“Additionally, a major issue that must be addressed is lack of fast-charging availability for home and public charging,” adds Davenport.
“Utility providers will need to increase their investments in smart grid infrastructure to cope with the growing consumption of electricity. In addition, to meet climate change ambitions, countries which utilise fossil fuels to generate electricity will need to redesign their power generation to respond to the transition.”
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