BMI-T predicts broadband revolution

By Damaria Senne, ITWeb senior journalist

Johannesburg, 19 Apr 2007

Broadband is staging a revolution in SA, with prices expected to fall by as much as 70% by 2010, coming in line with accepted international standards, says BMI-TechKnowledge.

Speaking at the Small and Medium Business Forum, in Midrand yesterday, senior analyst Richard Hurst said there would be a tenfold increase in bandwidth. As a result, 30% of the local professional workforce will be mobile, he said.

Hurst said broadband connections would grow to 2.5 million by 2010. The figure would be higher if Telkom were to introduce dramatic price cuts, which the utility previously announced.

He explained that ADSL and 3G with HSDPA will each account for a million subscribers, with other technologies accounting for 350 000 subscribers. Metro networks will also come into play, and may eat into the subscriber bases of both ADSL and HSDPA, he noted.

Hurst added that Vodacom and MTN have dramatically reduced prices, which will drive uptake of wireless broadband services. However, increased uptake will also depend on latency, throughput and guaranteed service availability.

Laptop power critical

One of the benefits of strong broadband uptake is that the mobile workforce will increase dramatically, accounting for 30% of SA's professional workforce, Hurst said.

However, Dave Drummond, country manager for Acer, said laptop power management is a hindrance to true mobility, due to battery life limitations.

He noted that extending battery life to facilitate true mobility for laptops is an important agenda for manufacturers and vendors such as Acer, Intel and Microsoft. Measures are being taken to provide more processing power, he added.

The next generation of laptops will see up to seven real hours of battery life, he claimed. By 2009, fuel cell technology will come into play, enhancing connectivity and allowing notebooks to go a long way to fulfilling the always-on, always-connected benefits that match mobile phone connectivity, he added.

Drummond said the main drawback with fuel cells right now is that they are bigger than the laptops. However, research and development is under way to change that.

He predicted ultra-wideband radio would also enhance mobility. While working at the office, employees still need to be anchored to a docking station and electrical plug points, he pointed out.

Research is being undertaken to facilitate losing the cables to provide wireless connectivity for all devices, such as phones, printers, laptops and cameras, he concluded.