ICT analyst firm BMI-TechKnowledge anticipates that mobile subscribers in the Southern African Development Community (SADC) and East African Community (EAC) will reach 45 million by 2008, at a compound annual growth rate of around 13%.
According to Brian Neilson, BMI-T`s director of research, the SADC/EAC region has already demonstrated that it holds untapped telecoms potential through its rapid mobile subscriber growth and recent market liberalisation.
"BMI-T is of the opinion that the subscriber base in these two regions will reach some 30 million by the end of this year, which means that the estimate of 45 million by 2008 is actually quite conservative," says Neilson in the company`s latest telecoms report.
"Now is the time for players in this area to begin seeking new methods of addressing the region`s telecoms needs, such as through commercial solutions like prepaid billing, new regional backbone projects and a range of technology solutions, particularly wireless."
He says, however, that in terms of fixed-line connectivity, the region appears to have slowed down and even declined in areas like the Democratic Republic of the Congo and SA.
As far as Internet and data services go, revenues are expected to grow at between 30% and 40%, and will eventually outstrip the growth rates of mobile voice.
"The growth of Internet bandwidth may not be too steady, although it should be stepped up as new fibre projects come on stream in 2006," he says.
"In the next three to five years, it seems likely that the demand for fibre backbones will be satisfied and the predicted glut of international bandwidth will become a reality, even in Africa."
Neilson believes the real challenge will lie in making this bandwidth available right through to the last mile.
"This has to be achieved via high quality, affordable fixed-line access networks, although fixed wireless technology will also have an increasingly important role to play in this, while satellite will also play a vital, if niche, role in both backbone and access networks."
According to the report, plans are under way to begin constructing a pan-regional network through a harmonised approach that will prevent unnecessary duplication of facilities.
"Regional networks have been mooted for more than a decade already, but the perceived benefits are clear: African states will be able to share international traffic and revenues while avoiding the high cost of transmitting via Europe or the US," says Neilson.
"A regional exchange that will offer pan-African peering is also on the cards, although as the shift from voice to data continues unabated, the regulatory issues surrounding voice over IP are becoming more urgent."
In conclusion, he says BMI-T believes massive investment and growth can be expected in the mobile arena over the next few years, with East Africa in particular showing a lot of promise in this regard.
"However, it is not all that gloomy for fixed-line networks, as these will have an opportunity in the backbone transmission and data services markets."
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