Forrester predicts that automation will cannibalise 17% of all jobs in the US economy by 2027. It forecasts that 2022 is the year when self-driving vehicles will begin to really take off, accelerating the dismantling of certain job categories entirely. But the research firm also notes that changes in how we work will create jobs equivalent to 10% of the current workforce.
What people must remember, cautions Craig Nel, mobile and cognitive experience leader at Oracle for the Middle East, Africa and Turkey, is that this isn't the first time in our history that we are feeling the impact of automation. At the start of the industrial revolution ? which was really the first time machines took over the jobs of humans ? mass unemployment was feared by most. And although many jobs were indeed lost, this automation of tasks created new and different jobs requiring new and different skills, he explains.
Automation is the answer to many of the challenges facing the supply chain, but it will bring with it disruption to both job roles and skills requirements, adds David Slotow, CEO at Trackmatic.
Today, we're seeing astonishing advances in technology for supply chain automation, Nel continues. You just have to look at the order fulfilment process at some of the big global online retailers and witness the amazing work done in their enormous warehouses by robots to see how far we've come. With the addition of artificial intelligence (AI), robots have become immensely clever and useful but, above all, much more economical. Now add the Internet of Things (IoT) and blockchain, and the scene is perfectly set for a new revolution in the supply chain automation space.
Sean Young, senior client partner at Decision Inc, agrees. New and disruptive technologies are not only changing the supply chain ecosystem, but also transforming the world of work. These solutions are reshaping the demand for certain skills, as staff now need to monitor these new technologies and get to grips with new production processes, he says. Companies keen to enhance their workforce in line with future requirements must come up with programmes and policies to facilitate the change and support the transition process, especially if they want to avoid any future disruptions.
I believe that technology is and always has been an extension of humans and is part of our evolution. We create it and then it becomes us, rather than replaces us.
Sean Young, Decision Inc.
For Young, the potential impact of warehouse automation goes beyond simple improvements in overall productivity. Technology can help warehouses handle fast-changing multichannel and omni-channel requirements and increase their service levels to support the new same-day and next-day delivery expectations of the on-demand consumer.
Robot revolution
But will robots leave people without jobs?
According to Nel, the honest, and very simple, answer is 'yes', followed by a very big 'but'. Robots will not take over all jobs. They will not render people obsolete. But people will do different, and in most instances, new jobs.
While there are some differing opinions in the market about this question, the general consensus is that robots will eliminate the need for people to do certain jobs, says Brandon Aitken, account director at Webhelp SA. But we will always need people at all levels of organisations to 'teach' the robots what to do. "I truly believe that the best use of technology is when it is employed as a solution to something that was a `sticking point' within your business. Robots will support people, making them more efficient and enhancing their roles rather than completely taking them over."
I don't think we can predict more than five years ahead yet, but things are going to change. They already are.
David Slotow, Trackmatic
Discussions about robots putting jobs at risk seem to be turning more into discussions about shifts in the types of jobs that exist, says Decision Inc's Young. That said, a new form of flexibility will be required in order for humans to successfully work alongside technologies. "I believe that technology is and always has been an extension of humans and is part of our evolution. We create it and then it becomes us, rather than replaces us," he says.
State of the nation
What are some of the knock-on effects of supply chain automation? The experts wade in.
How does this scenario play out in South Africa, where job creation is a high priority?
Kerry-Lyn Hope, business development manager at Magic Software, is a little worried. In SA, most of the unskilled supply chain jobs are held by individuals who might find it difficult to upskill themselves and enhance their capabilities. Where our local workforce can add value is using their on-the-job experience to suggest how the supply chain can best be automated. In this way, their understanding of the ins-and-outs of jobs becomes the bargaining chip they can use to continue to add value.
Sean Young, senior client partner at Decision Inc, offers a similar perspective. Quite ironically, he says, a recent research white paper from the World Economic Forum unpacked the impact of the Fourth Industrial Revolution. The research noted that several industries, including logistics and supply chain management, are actually facing significant talent shortages. This highlights just how valuable human capital is, and will continue to be long into the future.
What should the local workforce be doing to future-proof their supply chain roles?
For Craig Nel, mobile and cognitive experience leader at Oracle for the Middle East, Africa and Turkey, both employers and employees must work together to understand what impact supply chain automation will have on the business and on the people who work there. There is no reason why supply chain automation cannot be mutually beneficial. Once the impact is identified and understood, it's easier to clarify any redundancies and identify new or different positions and the skills needed to fulfil these roles.
We all have the choice to either reject or embrace change and the reality is that technology drives exponential change, notes Young. He advises that anyone wanting to future-proof their role in the supply chain must raise their awareness of what exciting and disruptive technological and other advances are happening in their core industry, whether it be distribution, retail or logistics, for example. In line with this, he stresses the importance of looking outside of your functional business area. Start considering what other factors could affect the supply chain. Take the global retail landscape, for example, and consider how mobile technologies have changed customer expectations. It is these factors that will ultimately shape the supply chain of the future. "If you want to be a part of it, you need to become more aware of it."
Do you think automation will create a need for jobs that we don't even know about yet?
Let's consider a few jobs that we'd never heard about 10 years ago, suggests Nel. App developers didn't exist prior to the arrival of the iPhone in 2007. If someone claimed to be a cloud computing specialist a decade ago, you may have thought they were joking. Drone operators, social media community managers, Uber drivers and data scientists are all careers that have only come to the fore in recent years.
According to Forrester, automation will spur the growth of many new jobs, including some entirely new job categories, which are incredibly difficult to conceive. Futurist Martin Ford once challenged people to try to imagine a new industry that doesn't exist today, one that will create millions of new jobs. It's a tough ask when you actually give it some thought.
There certainly are jobs coming down the line that we can't even imagine yet, states David Slotow, CEO at Trackmatic. The radical shifts in drones, vehicles and tools are already transforming the way the supply chain operates today and we're only set to see more of this with the introduction of innovations like autonomous vehicles. Imagine the potential of an automomous truck and how much easier it would be for a business to do a delivery to a far-flung rural area or to platoon fleets on major highways.
"I don't think we can predict more than five years ahead yet, but things are going to change. They already are," Slotow says.
The changing job market, in perspective
Forrester outlines how automation will change work as we know by breaking the situation down into three simple categories: jobs lost, jobs created and jobs transformed.
Jobs lost: The net number of jobs lost ? or pre-emptively not created where they otherwise would have been ? due to automation. For example, bank teller numbers reduced due to ATM adoption.
Jobs created: The net number of jobs gained ? or entirely new job categories that arise ? as a result of automation. For example, a robot service technician.
Jobs transformed: Jobs in which 25% of working time is redeployed to other tasks due to automation. For example, a physician using machine-learning technologies, like IBM Watson, to get a second opinion about a patient or procedure.
Awaiting the autonomous wave
There's no doubt that new job roles will be created to support the technological advances we are about to experience. However, the major factor here is time.
In the instance of autonomous vehicles and drones, there is likely to be a longer adoption rate, says Webhelp SA's Brandon Aitken. "For the Average Joe, the technology being developed across the autonomous vehicle space will enhance the safety features of our cars, resulting in reduced numbers of major and minor collisions on our roads. For business, I think this technology will be used to make final mile deliveries to customers more personalised, for instance using closed authentication between the delivery vehicle and point of delivery to deliver your parcel to the boot of your car or garage. But there are unfortunately still so many nuances and complexities around the management and delivery logistics for this kind of thing to happen any time soon."
This article was first published in the October 2018 edition of ITWeb Brainstorm magazine. To read more, go to the Brainstorm website.
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