As countries worldwide navigate the geopolitical implications of artificial intelligence (AI) and generative AI (GenAI) by leveraging the emerging tech for security and economic development, Africa is falling behind.
This was the sentiment shared during a webinar held this week by BCG X that focused on how the geopolitics of AI is shaping the future of global power, the global economy and international relations.
Discussions focused on the supply of AI, which will be paramount in shaping the geopolitical dynamics of regions across the globe. The flipside of supply – the actual adoption of the technology – is also of critical importance.
Nikolaus Lang, global leader of the BCG Henderson Institute, BCG’s think tank, noted the US and China are currently the only players with robust control over sizeable portions of the whole GenAI value chain.
These countries produce the most intellectual property and have the largest AI talent pools. They have some of the richest data ecosystems in the world, the most data centre infrastructure capacity and lead in capital access.
However, the concentration of tech power is fuelling global tensions and competition – especially around GenAI, he warned.
Tech companies in these two GenAI superpowers have built a substantial lead in the creation and large-scale commercialisation of top-performing large language models (LLMs). These include the likes of Meta, OpenAI, Microsoft, DeepSeek, MiniMax and Tencent.
Market capitalisation of the 1 000 largest tech companies across the globe is estimated to currently be at $24.7 trillion, while total investments in GenAI companies from July 2019 to March 2025 reached $89.5 billion, according to BCG.
African companies fall behind these forerunners, said Lang. “We have been looking at the AI issues as far as supply chains are concerned in terms of where do we see large data centre capability and large applications, and African countries are unfortunately still not on the top of the lead list.
“There are cases where there may be AI activities going on, but we see how challenging the whole race is for Europe. I don't see a large generation of the GenAI supply base in Africa − perhaps more adoption than fuelling supply chains.”
African economies, he added, risk being left behind in the AI revolution that is transforming the policy landscape and revolutionising business models.
Rapid and extensive adoption of GenAI can positively impact competitiveness and productivity, leading to broader economic prosperity. For many country leaders, promoting adoption of AI across the economy may be the right policy priority, he commented.
Quoting a BCG X report, Lang pointed out that corporate leaders who are integrating GenAI into an increasing share of their products and services, and who are operating across multiple geographies, relying solely on GenAI supplied by companies in the US or China could pose serious challenges. Local regulations, data requirements and the availability of LLMs are all subject to shifts in government policy.
“Both company and country leaders need to be able to navigate the new geopolitics of AI by building their geopolitical muscle: the ability to sense coming shifts and adapt their operating model.
“Executives will also need to be able to ensure smooth operations across the geographies in which they do business, despite differences in regulation, language and legacy tech infrastructure.”
Mid expectations
While the US-China story has fuelled the “two GenAI superpowers narrative”, momentum is building in other parts of the world, as GenAI middle powers emerge, said Lang.
This includes Europe, Middle East and Asia. Singapore, South Korea and Japan have strong technology sectors, with the capital to scale. The European Union (EU) has the world’s third-largest data centre capacity, after the US and China, with 8GW in 2024.
“The EU’s greatest challenge lies in securing the investments necessary to keep up with model scaling and expand data centre infrastructure (which includes upgrading the power grid). As a result, EU-based technology firms have only a fraction of the investment muscle of their US counterparts. The 20 largest EU tech companies spent a combined $40 billion on R&D in 2022, compared to $200 billion for the 20 largest tech companies in the US,” said Lang.
Commenting on a question about Africa’s position in the GenAI race, Sylvain Duranton, global leader at BCG X, explained: “What we do see in Africa is some AI talent pools; for instance, in North Africa, like Morocco and Egypt, there are talented engineers and students studying STEM fields.
“There is great enthusiasm regarding the deployment of AI and GenAI, and Africa has a place in the world. But in terms of being a big supplier and the big power, there is still a long way for Africa.
“The population is enthusiastic about AI as a key to finding new job opportunities and learn new languages, and the sentiment is very different from what we see in the US and Europe.”
Because AI sovereignty may soon become a critical source of national security, economic value and soft power, governments of countries or regions with potential to become GenAI middle powers should consider what it would take to claim the space, he added.
Ensuring robustness across enablers will involve different immediate priorities for each: some will need to focus on attracting and retaining the right talent, others will need to emphasise investment to boost domestic AI champions, and still others may need to prioritise expanding their data centre infrastructure, Duranton stated.
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