A cloud hangs over 2012, according to many industry observers, but this is not as ominous as it may sound. An overwhelming prediction for the year to come involves, among other advents and extensions of existing trends, cloud computing and the proliferation of mobility.
“There has been a lot of hype around cloud computing in 2011 and we expect this to continue in 2012,” says Anton He"ydenr"ych, analyst at Africa Analysis.
“We expect short to medium term public cloud adoption primarily from consumers and the SME market, using services offered by primarily telco-type players and pure-play public cloud service providers. These markets are price-sensitive and will be buying (or consuming free) commodity-type public cloud services and the market will be small compared to the overall IT services or IT outsourcing markets.”
Chair of the Government Information Technology Officers' Council, Julius Segole, says smartphone penetration should dominate ICT in 2012. This comes with the introduction of Android-based phones and affordably-priced smartphones from the likes of Samsung and Vodafone. “It is also encouraging to see government begin to embrace the networked world and adopt the use of social networks and mobile phones.”
Segole predicts that SA's smartphone penetration will grow to 25% in the next year and reach over 60% within three years. “I also predict that more government services will be available through smartphones than on traditional Interned services within three years.”
Gartner VP and research fellow Steve Prentice heralds what he dubs the “Internet of everything” as a mainstay for 2012. He says two inter-related trends are contributing to this phenomenon: “The explosive growth in the number of intelligent devices now connecting to the Internet is literally linking the physical and digital worlds together, creating the 'Internet of things' and the 'Internet of people', with about 30% of the global population now using the Internet on a daily basis.”
According to Altech CTO Dr Willie Oosthuysen, cloud computing is changing the way people think about software and services, and is set to become a significant part of the future. “These could be public, private or hybrid cloud services.”
He says he foresees major shifts in the content, commerce and communication industries. “This shift is mainly driven by social media as networking platforms such as Skype and Facebook take centre stage in terms of importance over entertainment companies, retailers and communication network providers.”
Local look
Business unit leader of Africa ICT at Frost & Sullivan, Birgitta Cederstrom, predicts the advent of two major IT phenomena in SA: the introduction of IPTV and video on demand services and further demand for data centre and managed services by both enterprises and SMEs.
According to personal systems group country manager at HP SA, Thibault Dousson, 2012 will be the year of the Ultra Book. He says the accent will be put on the design and ultra mobility.
“Windows 8 will be launched probably at the end of the year and will create a new way of interaction with the PC. It will be a transitional year, with a very exciting new range of products and applications.
“Online platforms will grow more and more, especially with the decrease of Internet connectivity costs,” he adds. “We will see the emergence of a new kind of resellers and retailers in SA, as well as a new kind of consumer. The corporate sector will strive to engage in different ways when it comes to the purchase of their IT equipment over the next five years.”
Vodacom CEO Pieter Uys says 2012 will be a boon year for Android and will see a continuing trend towards more affordable mobile data. “While 2011 saw many promotional activities that pushed prices down, in real terms, costs dropped by about a quarter.”
He also throws in a prediction of what is likely not to arrive on the doorstep next year: the next generation of mobile technology, long-term evolution (LTE). Uys says SA is unlikely to benefit from LTE in 2012, but offers a consolatory foresight: faster mobile data speeds and cheaper broadband. “What will happen is higher speed HSPA+ and wider coverage.”
Leaps and bounds
MD of World Wide Worx Arthur Goldstuck says 2012 will see the comeback of Windows Phone and Nokia, and the new version of Android will give the operating system a jump-start from the middle of the year.
“Apple iOS' market share will probably drop in both the tablet and smartphone spaces, unless Tim Cook pulls an unexpected rabbit out of the hat - like half price iPads and iPhones.”
He says BlackBerry maker Research In Motion will probably be sold or one or both of its joint CEOs “dumped”.
Internet access, says Goldstuck, will continue to leap in Africa on the back of smartphone growth and social networking enthusiasm. “SA will see its Internet user base growing by up to 15% in 2012, passing the nine million mark by the end of the year. More than two-thirds of these users will be accessing the Internet on their phones and using social networking tools.”
T-Systems SA VP of sales, Gert Schoonbee, says while many new technology trends, such as cloud computing, mobility, security, collaboration and sustainability, emerged in 2011, not all of them gained traction in the local market. Yet, they will become increasingly accepted (and adopted) in SA in 2012, he adds.
According to Schoonbee, an increase in the requirement for unified communications will rear its head in 2012. “The need for unified communications and presence management has become even more relevant with the increase of mobility, ensuring people can be contacted anywhere and on any device.”
CEO of Standard Bank's innovation arm Beyond Payments, Herman Singh, predicts triple-digit growth in m-commerce, via mobile-based online payment solutions. He further foresees rapid growth in transit near field communications payment solutions and rapid commoditisation of the airtime distribution market. A tech crunch, says Singh, may also be on the horizon, with many wallet and niche payment tech shops “going bust or consolidating”.
Gijima CTO Emson Moyo envisages a “fight for the African hinterland” emerging in 2012 as South African ICT players start to see opportunities offered by expansion into other African countries.
“The infrastructure in these countries still lags what is found in SA, but these economies are growing at a faster rate. The fight [for Africa] will be tough as Indian and Chinese companies have targeted the same area as a key growth opportunity.”
Intel fellow and director of interaction and experience research, Genevieve Bell, says anti-big data behaviour is likely to become a recognisable trend in the next few years.
“In the business world, there's a lot of talk about 'big data'. However, what people are really interested in is the 'small data' in their lives. They care about relationships; what's on their Facebook wall; on their Twitter feed and so on. In the hands of companies, this information is part of big data but in the hands of human beings it's small data.”
She says people are beginning to show resistance towards the notion of big data, because they don't want to be part of data analytics. Jeff Hancock at Cornel University says that most Americans lie on their online dating profile. “This is mostly due to a desire to present a better image to the outside world, but there is also a reaction against their data being used for commercial gain.”
SA's first mobile operator's Uys concludes that “things will settle down” in 2012, a year that will also mark a “great turning point in the telecommunications industry”.
Related feature:
2011 and 2012: Retrograde glimpses and forward-looking peeks: Part 1
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