Public enterprises minister Alec Erwin, often referred to as SA's second telecommunications minister, has been pegged as a likely candidate to follow president Thabo Mbeki in his resignation.
Erwin has, on several occasions, stated he will not attempt to follow up his portfolio within the next administration. Erwin, along with his counterparts in the departments of communications and public service and administration, is considered to be part of Mbeki's inner circle.
With the odds that Ivy Matsepe-Casaburri and possibly Geraldine Fraser-Moleketi will leave their posts, analysts feel it is likely that Erwin will follow.
The Department of Public Enterprises' spokesman could not comment on whether Erwin would tender his resignation.
Erwin has had a significant impact on the ICT market during the four years in his current portfolio. The minister has been the primary hand and champion of the much-anticipated Broadband Infraco project.
The project was birthed to ensure higher ICT penetration and affordable broadband connectivity in SA. A report at the project's inception stated: "Infraco will make available communications infrastructure and a network that will provide access for undeveloped areas and bandwidth requirements for specific projects of national importance, which could include scientific initiatives, such as the Square Kilometre Array Telescope project and the SA Research Network."
Infraco safe
Professor Susan Booysens, analyst from the Wits graduate school of public and development management, says the odds of Erwin leaving are extremely high. "If he decided to stay on in his portfolio until the next elections, it would be a reversal of what he has been saying over the last few months."
She says he may hang in for a few weeks to make sure the transition will be stable; however, she believes this is unlikely.
Booysens adds that the industry should not be concerned about certain projects, including Broadband Infraco, since the next administration will want to prove itself. "While there have been criticisms from Jacob Zuma's camp around almost everything else, ICT has not yet faced any criticism."
She would be completely surprised if projects like Infraco got left behind or dropped: "It is more likely the next portfolio-holder will want to show they will continue with ICT development."
IDC programme director Richard Hurst agrees that the project will not be discarded; however, he says success will depend on who takes over the portfolio. "Erwin has really been a champion in a cause and, the question is, will his successor be as enthusiastic about the project as he was?"
The industry is concerned that the timelines for the landing of Infraco's West Coast cable are already under pressure and the 2010 deadline may not be met if Erwin jumps ship now. However, Hurst says, while the timelines may need to be "massaged", the next administration should follow a "business as usual" plan.
"However, it really depends on who comes in next," he concludes.
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