Political upheaval in Kenya has yet to impact on telecommunications infrastructure in that country. However, ICT players say they are monitoring the situation closely and are concerned at the impact the unrest could have on investment prospects.
Last month the East African country, formerly regarded as stable and a top telecoms investment prospect in the region, erupted with violence after supporters of opposition leader Raila Odinga accused President Mwai Kibaki of rigging the 27 December elections.
Media reports say the charges brought long-hidden ethnic tensions to the fore, sparking violent attacks in the slums of Nairobi, the coast and the countryside. More than 350 people have been killed in the unrest and over 250 000 have been left homeless.
Internet Solutions and Altech, both of which have Kenyan operations, say they have received no reports of damage to telecommunications infrastructure.
"However, we are keeping a close tab on the situation," says Altech Stream MD Henk Basson.
Chaos escalates
Media reports indicate fears that the violence could escalate into civil war, resulting in more deaths, destruction of property and an increase in the number of Kenyans left homeless. Additionally, Frost and Sullivan research analyst Spiwe Chireka says if violence is limited to attacks on people, with no destruction of telecommunications infrastructure, there should be no impact on the quality of communication service.
Speaking from the company's Nairobi office in Kenya, IS Kenya MD Tejpal Bedi says that scenario is unlikely, as Kenyans "have too much at stake to take this conflict into civil war".
"I'm very optimistic that government and the opposition party will sort out their conflict and that we will see the beginnings of resolution in the next couple of days," he says.
Basson says it is in the best interest of landlocked countries surrounding Kenya to help in the resolution of the situation, as their telecommunications infrastructure depends on the transport system running through Mombasa to provide international connectivity.
Awaiting cabinet
Prior to the unrest, market watchers, telecoms analysts and investors regarded Kenya as the top investment destination in East Africa, with countries wishing to operate in that region basing their operations in that country.
Kenya is one of the most competitive countries in Africa in terms of telecommunications; far better than SA, says Development Bank of Southern Africa ICT specialist George Finger. Government implemented policies that drive down telecoms prices, he adds.
However, Finger says he is concerned that media reports which claim that the conflict is motivated by tribalist agendas - rather than pure political disagreements - could hurt investment prospects of the country.
"My sources tell me this issue is about allegations of election rigging, not about tribal problems," he insists.
Finger is also concerned that policies implemented by a new government could negatively impact on the gains made by the previous regime, reducing some of the strides made in telecommunications deregulation in the country.
Frost and Sullivan's Chireka and BMI-TechKnowledge senior analyst Richard Hurst disagree. Both analysts say they are confident that the new government (however it is constituted) would not change telecoms policies for the worse.
"I think the new government will make changes in terms of the monetary policies. But, right now they have the best telecommunications regulatory policies and it would make no sense for the new government to destroy what is already working for the country," says Chireka.
Hurst adds that while the news of the political unrest in Kenya is disturbing, the market has adopted a wait-and-see attitude. "It's early days yet; and the industry is hoping that democracy and normalcy will prevail."
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