Media reports suggesting communications minister Ivy Matsepe-Casaburri may be removed from her post on the ANC's national executive committee (NEC) have industry hoping this could lead to her exit from her ministerial role.
Over the weekend, newspaper Mail & Guardian reported the ANC could see an executive shake-up during the party's national congress in December. According to the report, Matsepe-Casaburri could find herself ousted from the NEC as she is seen by the left wing as an Mbeki minion and "dead wood".
Additional individuals identified by the paper as potential eviction targets for leftist delegates included intelligence minister Ronnie Kasrils, empowerment billionaire Popo Molefe, public service and administration minister Geraldine Fraser-Moleketi, minister in the Presidency Essop Pahad, and health minister Manto Tshabalala-Msimang.
Cautiously optimistic
Industry players hope this will mark the end of the communications minister's reign.
MyADSL founder Rudolph Muller notes Matsepe-Casaburri's exit from the NEC would certainly diminish her political power.
"The minister is under pressure from all sectors - from the Presidency through to the consumer. So far, she has failed to create a competitive telecommunications environment where communications are accessible and affordable. If she is removed from the NEC, we may actually see her depart from the communications ministry," he adds.
A telecoms player, who asked not to be named, says the communications ministry needs to find someone similar in leadership style to finance minister Trevor Manuel.
"Matsepe-Casaburri could learn a lot from Manuel. When he entered the finance ministry, he surrounded himself with people who understood the environment and had the intellect to draw up the plans the country needed. Matsepe-Casaburri, on the other hand, believes she knows what she is doing and refuses to take the advice of better-placed individuals."
World Wide Worx MD Arthur Goldstuck says industry favour will depend on who is chosen to replace Matsepe-Casaburri.
"It's clear the telecommunications industry needs more decisive leadership. We've seen other departments replace an ineffective head without the department becoming more effective. Industry will welcome Matsepe-Casaburri's exit only if her replacement is a more decisive leader," he says.
Democratic Alliance MP Dene Smuts believes a reshuffle forced by the left may result in the appointment of a minister who is unsympathetic to the liberalising Electronic Communications Act.
"It is high time [Matsepe-Casaburri] moved on either way," she says.
No guarantees
Political analyst Daniel Silke says industry spectators should not get too excited about the weekend media reports.
"Being removed from the NEC will not necessarily lead to her removal from the position as minister of communications, although it will add more pressure. A lot will depend on what happens at the ANC leadership conference and whether there will be a change in leadership thrust. If this happens, it could well turn out that the Mbeki old guard is swept aside," he explains.
"Matsepe-Casaburri will also have to overcome the unfavourable feelings within the party and its partners regarding her leadership of the communications ministry. There are ongoing concerns about telecoms pricing, cost structures, access and monopolies, and many feel these issues have not been adequately addressed. [If her name does come up], there won't be great support to keep her in the position," he concludes.
Meanwhile, Patrick Craven, national spokesman for the Congress of South African Trade Unions, says the list of people mentioned by Mail & Guardian as leftist targets did not come from the organisation.
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