The domestic introduction of undersea cables before the 2010 Soccer World Cup will have a hugely positive impact on international broadband prices, says BMI-TechKnowledge (BMI-T) director Brian Nielson.
Nielson was commenting on the market research company`s latest study on SA`s current wireless and broadband market, as well as future trends in this arena.
According to BMI-T, international bandwidth is still "very expensive" in SA.
"It [international bandwidth cost] is going to come down significantly if more cables come into the country, especially if open access principles come into force," says Nielson.
However, South Africans will not be dependent on cable connectivity in 2010 to access broadband services, says Nielson.
"Currently, DSL accounts for 49% [of the domestic broadband market], but is shedding some market share to the fast-growing HSDPA wireless service being provided by the two mobile operators," says Nielson.
He predicts HSDPA will mature in about a year or two`s time, when it will be able to provide even greater connectivity speeds than are currently available.
According to the BMI-T predictions, fixed and wireless broadband subscriber numbers are expected to grow by 33% in the run-up to the 2010 event, reaching the 3.3 million subscriber level by 2012.
Nielson says domestic broadband prices have been dropping significantly in light of the fierce competition in this arena, and this trend is set to continue.
Domestically, Nielson says entry-level broadband bundles have already reached the stage where they cost "next to nothing", but what is offered for those prices will increasingly become an issue.
"We forecast, on average, a 400% improvement in performance by roundabout 2010/2012," says Nielson. "Whether this will translate to more data or better speeds remains to be seen, but it will probably be a combination of this."
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