Research by World Wide Worx shows SA can expect 210 000 ADSL users by the end of this year, and 340 000 by 2008.
"It`s a matter of pent-up demand [for broadband] on the one side, and the fact that it is so superior to dial-up on the other," argued World Wide Worx MD Arthur Goldstuck last week at the Broadband South Africa Conference, hosted by Trade Conferences International.
"We have a huge market of small businesses and individuals who are able to bring down their telecommunications costs substantially with ADSL, while making online transacting, research and collaboration far more efficient than with a dial-up connection," noted Goldstuck.
"Wireless broadband could also play such a role, but is still too patchy and unreliable."
Price myths
He argued that certain myths surrounding ADSL must disappear before uptake can really take off. "The masses don`t feel the need to get broadband - they don`t know what it is or what it can do. Secondly, just because ADSL is expensive, that doesn`t mean it doesn`t offer value."
In the sense that Telkom cannot keep up with the demand from those who can afford ADSL at current costs, it is a myth that it is "too expensive", he noted.
However, in the sense that it is still too costly to act as an enabling technology to assist in crossing the digital divide, it is still expensive, added Goldstuck.
SME figures
Delegates also heard of the importance of ADSL for small and medium enterprises (SMEs). The World Wide Worx SME survey 2005 revealed 27% of SMEs still used dialup connections, 23% used ADSL, 23% used dialup ISDN, and 11% used leased lines.
The other forms of Internet connectivity - such as MyWireless, iBurst, 3G, satellite and GPRS -were infrequently used by SMEs, according to the survey.
Fixed-line decline
Goldstuck quoted financial and review reports from Telkom in charting the decline in the monopoly`s fixed telephone lines, which have dropped from 5.5 million in 2000 to 4.7 million late last year.
"While ADSL is taking off at a rapid pace, the number of fixed-lines is dropping year by year, which shows that the one form of connectivity is meeting a great need despite its price, while the other is failing to meet a great need because of its price."
Goldstuck expects wireless broadband users in SA to reach 193 000 by 2008, up almost 100 000 from his shorter-term prediction of 97 000 by the end of this year.
He also told delegates that "the cellular phone user base is routinely overstated by up to 20%". Goldstuck argued that more realistic figures would place SA`s total cellular subscribers at just over 22 million as at September 2005, not the 28 million often stated.
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