Prepare for a host of new viruses

By Damian Clarkson, ITWeb junior journalist

Johannesburg, 20 Jan 2005

Computer users should expect a number of virus headaches in the coming year, virus experts warn.

The opening weeks of 2005 have already witnessed a number of viruses - including a MyDoom variant and a worm that spread by playing on the recent tsunami disaster - although none have proved malicious. This trend is likely to continue, says Brett Myroff, CEO of local Sophos distributor Netxactics.

"Sophos and ourselves do not believe in hyping the virus and spam situation. However, if one looks at last year`s stats, there is a definite increase in virus activity," he says.

Compared to 2004, users can expect to see the rate of increase for viral attacks to taper off in 2005, say experts, although this may not be as promising as it sounds.

Last year represented by far the worst-ever year in terms of viruses - Sophos detected over 10 000 new viruses, worms and Trojans, indicating a 51.8% increase over 2003 - so any dip in the curve of new viruses this year needs to be viewed in context, they warn.

What else in 2005?

Justin Stanford, CEO of anti-virus vendor NOD32 South Africa, says 2005 will also see significant technical advances in viruses, with increasingly cunning methods of utilising technology and human psychology to propagate.

Virus writers will also look to develop worms that exploit holes in fresh technologies, such as Windows XP Service Pack 2 (SP2), adds Stanford. "These types of worms can spread automatically and do not necessarily require human intervention.

"It remains to be seen how far and wide these will spread. SP2, for example, contains many new precautions against worms, such as a better built-in firewall and the security centre, but it is still going to take time before the majority of users are updated to SP2 and have the firewall enabled.

"So there is still a lot of room this year for new worms and ideas to emerge."

In terms of how viruses spread, the current trend is to move away from mass mailers and into worms, bots, Trojans and so on, says Grayford Holton, CEO of security company BitDefender.

"We may also begin to see a lot of otherwise legitimate Web sites infect unknowing visitors after being exploited or infected themselves."

Human psychology and tricking people will continue to play a large role, adds Stanford, as "programmatic" anti-virus solutions become more advanced and widespread - with firewalls, attachment blockers and so on - so viruses will have to rely more on humans to spread and infect.

Phishing now a favoured pastime

Phishing attacks will be a key security issue in 2005 and users should be increasingly cautious when handing out their personal data over the Internet.

The trend of phishing - e-mailing a user under false pretences in an attempt to scam the user into surrendering private information - first came to light in 2004, and security experts say the situation is likely to worsen this year.

Viruses will be less devastating in terms of resources taken up from PCs and data destroyed, because they need to be stealthy, says Holton.

However, users can expect viruses to be much more devastating in terms of personal data stolen, such as addresses, bank card numbers and passwords, he adds.

"The new breed of virus writers are in it for the money."