Right now 70% of African telephone subscribers are mobile and the number of mobile lines on the continent passed the number of fixed-lines in 2001. While future growth in SA`s cellular market will be driven by voice services, some compelling mobile data applications are likely to appear.
We have already seen tremendous uptake of cellphones with built-in cameras and colour screens which has led to increased multimedia messaging traffic.
South Africans are already prolific users of SMS facilities with subscribers sending an average of 17 messages per month compared to the worldwide average of four.
Although the cellular market is far from being saturated, network operators will have to improve call quality and offer a broader range of services. Services that combine voice and data - like IP voice mail - will stimulate demand.
The line between traditional mobile voice telephony and data being carried over wireless networks is blurring and operators need to be aware of this. Already general packet radio service (GPRS), which provides high-speed data service over cellular networks, is popular and used enthusiastically by South African businesspeople.
GPRS is 2.5G - the 'G` standing for generation - technology which means good data speeds over the air but many European countries are getting ready for broadband 3G services.
There`s still some way to go before we get 3G in this country and it remains to be seen whether the technology takes off internationally. Many international operators overpaid significantly for 3G licences.
However, for all the advances in wireless data services, they remain significantly slower than those offered over, for example, fibre optic cables. But that may be about to change.
New technology on the block
A new technology, called WiMax (Worldwide Intercompatibility for Microwave Access) is being touted as the next generation of cellular network.
From a single base station and a distance of up to 50km, WiMax can connect thousands of users to the Internet and provide a viable alternative to high-speed cable or digital subscriber line connections.
As data on the move becomes more important, services like mobile e-mail will become a must-have. Many people rely on their e-mail to do business as much as their phone and they need to be able to access it from wherever they are - even if they`re out of the office. Top cellular handsets have e-mail facilities built-in and activating them is often as simple as receiving an SMS message from the network operator or service provider which configures the system.
South Africans are already prolific users of SMS facilities with subscribers sending an average of 17 messages per month compared to the worldwide average of four.
Doug Mattheus, marketing director, Nashua Mobile
Handset manufacturers say they will include services like global positioning system on upcoming handsets and features like push-to-talk which turns cellphones into walkie-talkies.
The vast majority of South African cellular subscribers will remain on the prepaid system which reflects the trend across the rest of the continent where about 90% of people prepay their cellular subscriptions.
Contracts are a popular option, however, for high-end users and businesses which require sophisticated services like electronic billing and cost and usage analysis.
There have been more telecommunications lines installed in the first four years of this century in Africa - mostly mobile - than in the previous 100 years. Ultimately, growth will slow but remain healthy - way ahead of developed markets.
Take technology advances, growing customer demands, a changing regulatory environment, ongoing competition and it becomes clear that this market will remain as dynamic as ever. Nashua Mobile sponsors ITWeb`s cellular industry portal, which tracks the changes and challenges in this sector.
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